5.5** NFL POD - 59% on NFL POD's in my Career! #Cowboys vs.

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss out on the division battle between the Cowboys and the Redskins on Thanksgiving day. This play is guaranteed backed by a full in depth analysis and if we don't win you get Friday's college football card for FREE!

Cowboys -3 5.5* NFL POD
This game could be ugly as two of the most penalized teams will meet in Dallas on Turkey day. I'm loving the Cowboys in this spot as they are 13-0 in November at home under Tony Romo and Romo gets a favorable match up. I think we get a lot of value based on how the Cowboys struggled last week, but that was against Cleveland's passing defense. The Browns despite being ranked in the bottom of the league were the leagues best last year and have started to click in defending the pass allowing just 183 over their last 3. That was problamtic for the Cowboys because they have been unable to run the ball. I was not shocked to see their offense sputter, but it's no indication of how they have been playing because now they face a Redskins team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

Redskins have been good in key running situations, but still have allowed 4.6 ypc on the road, but even more of a key is their inability to stop the pass. They're ranked 29th in yards allow, and 28th in sack % which means they can't afford to blitz and won't get to Romo like the Browns did. Redskins defense has allowed 32, 31, 22, 27 and 27 in road games this year and Dallas is fully capable in the passing game that just seems to get better and better by the week to put up those type of numbers too and if they do this game will be over because the Redskins rely more on the run and are not built to come back.

RG III has been great and all, but their huge win last week is no indication of how good or bad they are. The Eagles have quit on their coach and the Redskins came off a bye. Now they travel on short rest to face the Cowboys at home on Turkey day. Dallas too has been one of the best run defenses at home good for 2nd allowing just 3.4 ypc. Ever since Jay Ratliff has come back they have been hard to run on. This will set up some longer third downs and that is where the Redskins seem to struggle big time as they are 30th only converting 30% of them while the Cowboys are 11th. Dallas defense on third down is also great ranking 5th allowing just 33% at home while the Redskins are ranked 29th. This translates over to the red zone where the Redskins are 20th and the Cowboys are 11th, but the Cowboys are only allowing 36% conversions in the red zone at home.

Bottom line people love to bet the hot hand and whoever they are talking about in the media and that has led to bets coming in on RG III, but I think Romo and the Cowboys can take off here if they get a win here. It's a crucial game and the Cowboys just seem to have the matchups especially with S Brandon Meriweather lost for the season on the Redskins side. This Cowboys team could easily be 8-2 right now, but a few bad breaks and coaching decisions. Last week they finally pulled off a game they would have lost in the past and I think that confidence will carry them to an easy victory on Thanksgiving as their defense takes control.