Super Bowl Prop Shop - 6 Prop Plays You can't Miss! Guarante

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss out on my 6 play prop package featuring 12* total! We guarantee you'll profit or we will refund your money as soon as the Super Bowl is over! This package comes with in depth statistical analysis for each prop which features player props as well as game props. Everything is calculated and has nothing to do with the coin toss!

Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker!

Under 44.5 yards (-110) for longest FG of the game 2.2* play
This game features two of the best defenses and two of the best kickers, but I don't think either kicker will make a FG over 44.5 yards. When you think about the percentages There are 72 opportunities for the teams involved in their opponents throughout the season. In 18 games the Patriots only had 5 games with a FG over 44.5 yards and they only allowed one in 6 games while the Seahawks only had 5 over 44.5 yards as well and allowed their opponents 5. Both of these teams are aggressive and I feel like if they get down around the 30 they are likely going for it.

Field Goal 1st Points of Game +125 1* Play
The first score has been a field goal in 12 of the Seahawks 18 games. I think they dictate this game a lot and the field goal will be the first points of Super Bowl 49. Patriots came in at just 5 of 18, but still that's 17 of 36 which is essentially even yet we get the value at +125.

Lagarette Blount U62.5 yards -130 2* play
The over would be the hot play here after Blount just got done running all over the Colts with 30 carries and 150+ yards, but Blount never had more than 12 carries all year long. The Patriots have a tendency to not lean on 1 guy and I doubt Blount will get 17 carries which is approximately what he would need to get to 63 yards vs. the Seahawks who are 3rd allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle will also game plan to stop Blount as they are very good at this compared with the Colts who were 24th. I also see a competitive game so I don't see the Patriots running it 30+ times as they only select running plays 40% of the time anyway.

Brandon Lafell U18.5 yards longest reception -115 1* play
Lafell is listed as questionable so he must play for this one which I believe he will. His toe injury could impact him here but that's not why I play the under here. New England is not a big play offense ranking 25th in big plays on the year while the Seahawks rank #1 in big plays allowed. They rank #1 in passing big plays allowing just 14 all year so I don't expect Lafell to have an impact on this game at all with long plays. Patriots are smarter than to attack a very good secondary like that.

Luke Wilson Over 2.5 receptions-115 3* play
Seahawks TE group was really banged up this year and Luke Wilson really stepped up down the stretch. He's not really known as a big time threat, but he got plenty of targets down the stretch over the last 5 games having 3 or more in each and had 3 TD catches in his last 4 games. New England wants to and will take away the WR of Seattle with their excellent secondary so I believe Wilson will have a big role in this game. NE was ranked 4th in opponents most targets towards a TE at 6.5/game. Only 2 out of 18 games did the Patriots allow less than 3 receptions to an opponents TE. Seeing as Wilson is the only TE getting targets these days I would love to take the over here.

Tom Brady U266.5 yards passing 3.3* play
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.