Friday's Free Pick (22-12 L34 Free Picks)

[Pick Bot]

Take Under 7.5 Runs -110 1.1DIMES TO WIN 1
One day after they could not get a single man on base against the White Sox Mark Buehrle they will have to face the best RHP in baseball at home. The Rays have had success against Halladay in fact they beat him twice despite Halladay having 15K's in 13IP and giving up 5ER. I really like the under in this game for many reasons including the bullpens that have been excellent in the Last 5 games. Rays = 1.74ERA, Jays = 2.00 ERA.

On the mound for the Rays is Garza who has struggled 6.06ERA last 3 starts, but he has been dominant over his career against the Jays. The Jays have a .247 career average vs. Garza, but Garza 5 starts last year vs. Toronto resulted in a 0.47ERA over 38 innings pitched. He gave up a total of 2 ER over that period. He had a start at the end of June against the Jays in Toronto and all he did was back up his 2008 campaign with 7IP and 1ER. He has struggled with his control but at times he is one of the best RHP in the AL East. I expect him to pitch well against a Blue Jays team that is averaging just .223 in their last 5 vs. RHP.

The Under is 13-3 in Rays last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the under is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. RH starter. The Under is 9-1-2 in the Blue Jays last 12 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 vs. AL East. In the last 39 meetings between the Jays and Rays the under has been successful 28 times!