**2-dime POD Runner UP (@ +140 Value or higher!)

[Pick Bot]

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Take Twins -1.5 @ +145 (2-Dime POD Runner Up 1-5 scale)
Excellent value here and mirror of our previous play of the week that fell to Nathan giving up the home run in the 9th and we did not cover the run line. We had value of +103 on the run line with Baker on the hill, but today we have got some major value at +145 and I can not ignore it.

Tigers are folding right now and the pressure is on. They face the Twins who trail by just 4 games in the loss column. Twins one of the better home teams and the dome is one of the hardest places for visiting pitchers and teams to play. Porcello will visit the Twins for the second time this year and the first time was not pretty. In the first match up he went just 4 innings gave up 7 hits and 4 ER while walking 2 batters. He'll have a little easier time without Morneau in the line up but I still love the Twins aggressive line up at home. Twins are hot right now winning 4 in a row and are hitting .320 in their last 5 games scoring 6.75 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Expect them to lay it on Porcello here a pitcher who struggles when pitching on turf. This year he has 2 starts with a 8.00 ERA including a team average against of .390. Tigers will be up for a pleasant surprise when they face Brian Duensing who is 2-0 on the season.

Duensing was in the bullpen earlier, but in his 4 starts at home as a starter he has a 1.04 ERA. He clearly has discovered his own niche pitching in the dome. In 26 innings he has struck out 23 batters, allowed 19 hits, 7 BB giving up just 3 ER with the 2 HR. Lucky for him he faces a team that struggles vs. LHP. Detroit on the road hitting just .233 with 3.78 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Tigers are 3-9 vs. LH starters in their last 12 road games. While the Twins are an amazing 13-3 in their last 16 overall vs. RH starter. I like this play more because of what the Tigers bullpen has done. They have a 7.18 ERA in their last 10 games and the 4.94 road bullpen ERA is not impressive. Considering they got beat up by the Royals now visiting one of the toughest home teams in the AL I like this play a lot. Oh and the Twins on an off day are only 25-11 in their last 36.