**3.5 Dime MLB POD 5-3 This Post, + 108-58 This Year! Specia

[Pick Bot]

Take Angels +123 (3.5 Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
I felt the shift of momentum last night when the Yankees lost in extras with 2 outs and nobody on. The story here today is Scott Kazmir who is on extra rest while CC Sabathia is going on 3 days rest here in LA. Is this good news or bad news for the Yankees. Many will say because they have their ace going tonight. I'm going with the Angels so obviously I'm the minority on this. Since 1995 post season pitchers going on 3 days rest are a combined 20-34 in 85 starts. In their first start they were 29-19 so it's very clear that making a start on 3 days rest can not be taken for granted. You simply do not pitch as well. Sabathia has had success in 2008 when pitching on 3 days rest 4 games in a row, but granted he pitched two games against the Pirates and Reds, and then got knocked up in the post season start against the Phillies so is there enough history to automatically check it off as a win?

This line has been moving the other way since it opened last night with the Yankees at -134 and 76% of the public is jumping on the Yankees after a loss with their ace going. However, the line has moved to -128 and I'll get into it even more.

The idea that the Angels have a terrible bullpen has been blown out of proportion so far at least in this series as the Angels have a 2.02 bullpen ERA this post season. So have they really been that bad? The answer is now, and today's game will likely come down to the bullpen again as Kazmir just does not go deep into games any longer. However, Kazmir has his best stats against the Yankees he is 6-5 lifetime with a 2.67 ERA and the Yankees who have led the majors in HR and slugging percentage at .478 have just 4 HR lifetime in 254 AB and a .327 slugging %. Here is where the bad news comes in for Yankee fans. 6 of the 9 projected starters have averages under .200 vs. Kazmir including Jeter (4-36), Damon (6-36), A-Rod (3-24), Matsui (5-28), Swisher (5-27), Cano (4-26). Teixera is 7-11 lifetime, but can't hit wind right now as he's 1-13 in the series. This explains the success of Kazmir and the Angels have to be pretty confident with him on the mound at home here today. Kazmir who had the awful first half has had a 1.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Yankees are 8-21 in their last 29 games in LA, and like I said before I just felt the momentum switch big time for the Angels with that walk off win last night. Sabathia will have his hands full with a lineup that is going to see a left handed pitcher on back to back nights, and are hitting .297 career off Sabathia. Now Sabathia had a solid Game 1 start where he went 8 IP gave up 4H 1 BB and 1 ER with 114 pitches, but again this is going to be on 3 days rest and in his only start in 09 @ LA he struggled giving up 9 hits 3 BB and 5 ER in 6.2 IP. Look for him to dominate through the order the first time, but for the patient hitters like Figgins and Abreu to come alive the 2nd time through and force him to pitch a lot. Yankees are 0-6 in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite -110 to -150 this is just another example of how Vegas is forced to make them favorites for the over whelming majority of the public that takes the Yankees side no matter what. They are also 1-7 in their last 8 road games.. this could spell trouble!