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Yankees -108 (4.5* MLB POD)
1ST Time the Yankees our going to be out POD but I have good value here and we’ll run with it. Bartolo Colon seems to be restored as a starter and now there is an investigation going on about how he got to this point. Red Sox have not seen him since 2005, but collectively the Sox have a .169 average against him with a .492 OPS. Colon has a 3.86 ERA but surprisingly his XFIP is 2.81 which has to due with his underlying skill and his actual ERA should be trending more toward that number. Colon’s .317 BABIP is slightly unlucky and going up against the Red Sox who are just 5-11 in New York in their last 16 games here in NY. Clay bucholz will take the mound and he has an ERA over 6 in his career vs. the Yankees that includes 23 hits 6 walks in his last 3 starts at New York over 17 IP. Boston has not performed well on the road with a .237 average 3.57 runs per 9 and a 5.49 bullpen. I believe the Yankees hold a distinct advantage here at home and in the pitching match up. I like Bucholz a lot, but his xFIP is trending upwards despite his early struggles which is surprising. He has struggled vs. the Yankees as Arod/Cano are 15-33 combined and have a .867 OPS vs. Bucholz collectively. Bucholz is 0-5 in his last 5 vs. AL East and 2-6 in his last 8 on 5 days rest.

Angels +100 (3.5* MLB Oddsline Error)
Alexi Ogando is 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA and having a fantastic year, but he has been by far one of the luckiest pitchers. Opponents have a .186 BABIP with 93.1LOB% and his XFIP to ERA differential is among the largest in the majors as his xFIP says 4.01 ERA. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher so backing him would really bother me. He hasn’t started since May 3rd due to a blister on right finger. Angels are actually 1st with a .300 road average this year and are averaging 5.37 runs per 9 and are 12-7 on the road. They’ll send Jerred Weaver to the mound who has been fantastic vs. the Rangers he’s 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA on the road this year but in his last 6 starts vs. the Rangers he’s 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA since last July. This is nothing new to Weaver and all he has to do is bridge the gap from the bullpen because they have been struggling. Luckily so has Texas’ bullpen with a 6.62 ERA over last 5 games.Texas hitting just .227 in their last 5 games vs. RHP with 3.08 runs per 9. Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 road vs. a RH STARTER.