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4.4** nCAAF Pod guaranteed PAC 12 showdown

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.4** nCAAF Pod guaranteed PAC 12 showdown

Postby Pick Bot » Thu Oct 06, 2011 9:06 pm


Don't miss tonight
Pod we have
Been
On fire
This ncaaf season!

Oregon -23.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
I like Oregon here despite both teams having extra rest and time to prepare for each other.  The story is how California held Oregon’s high potent offense to just over 300 yards and only 15 points a year ago.  What will be the difference this year?  So much has changed since that game the biggest is the location of this game which will be played on Oregon’s home turf a big difference especially for Cal a team that just does not play well on the road.  Cal already gave up 33 to Colorado and 31 to Washington on the road this year two teams that are not even close to what Oregon can do.  The next thing is the defense is a completely different team as Cal DL Ernest Owusu said.  They definitely still have talent up front despite Cameron Jordan moving on to the NFL, but the biggest difference is at outside linebacker where they’ll have two new starters a freshmen and a sophomore.  That’s where Lamichael James and kenjon Burner can take advantage in the running game and that will prove to be the biggest difference in my opinion along with…
 
Cal defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast was suspended for admitting he told his players to fall down during the Oregon game last year to slow them down and we just will not see that tonight I don’t think.  That should also motivate an Oregon team that really wants to prove they are still the same team as last year after their 27-40 loss vs. LSU to open the season.  This is their first opportunity for revenge and their first opportunity to show the nation they are still relevant.  Now Cal has been able to stop the run no doubt allowing 78 ypg, but they faced 4 teams including an FCS foe that just can’t run the ball as they are averaging 116 yards per carry.  Thus Cal showed they are weak in pass defense and that’s because they have 2 new players in the secondary too.  They are allowing over 300 yards to FBS teams and gave up 474 passing to Colorado a team that lost last week at home to Washington State.  With that said Darron Thomas has matured and has shown an ability to pass with accuracy and that should keep Cal on its heels.  Kelly surely has his QB poised and motivated to have a huge game.
 
Last point, Zach Maynard came over from Buffalo to QB.  In 2009 with the Buffaloes he completed just 57% of his passes for 18 TD and 15 INT and was sacked 17 times.  Thus far he has only completed 52% of his passes with 10 TD and 3 INT.  So his TD’s and pass yards are better mainly because he has two studs at WR, but Maynard is far from something special and I’m pretty sure he’s never gone on the road to face a team like Oregon in his career.  I believe he makes a couple mistakes as Cal has no balance with the running game and are passing way too much and Oregon’s secondary is loaded with athleticism and returning players and is considered the strength of the defense.  Overall this is just a bad match up for Cal who will fall to 0-2 in the PAC 12.  Lastly Cal’s Offensive line has been inconsistent and this is exactly the type of game they will show their ugly side as we have seen them hurt by penalties they had 12 in one game and 11 in another this year expect the same in a noisy environment.  Cal is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games while Oregon 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 as 10.5+ favorites.
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