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[Pick Bot]

Syracuse +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They’ve lost only 7 before their last game all season so expect them to get back to that as South Florida is -4 in TO margin in conference play and they are turning it over 3 times per game.

This should be a battle of the running games, but both QB’s are having solid seasons, but BJ Daniels is highly inconsistent and when he does not have balance on offense he usually is in for a long night. Syracuse is the #1 run defense in the Big East and we’ll get to that in a moment. On the road Daniels is just completing 51% of his passes and has 2 TD to 3 interceptions. Ryan Nassib on the other hand has a 149 rating 67.7% 12 TD to 4 interceptions at home. Syracuse is actually playing better pass defense right now and they get after the QB just as much as South Florida particularly at home where they have 16 sacks this year and 16 in 4 conference games. South Florida is also banged up and is without their best WR in Sterling Griffin.

Next, South Florida does have the better running game by far, but Darrell Scott (5.66 ypc) is banged up and Syracuse has allowed nobody to run on them especially at home where they allow just 2.30 yards per carry and 2.94 in conference play this year. If South Florida has issues running that turns it over to BJ Daniels throwing and I still do not trust him not on the road with Syracuse ability to get to the QB. I expect that to move the turnover battle in Syracuse favor tonight.

Last thing I look at as one of the more important stats in a head to head match up is Red Zone and 3rd down performance. Syracuse comes out on top in red zone by far. They are converting 59% of their attempts (39 att) into TD’s, while USF is 54% (37 att). Defensively Syracuse is allowing 45% (31 att), while South Florida 50% (28 att), but at home Syracuse has allowed just 4 TD in 17 red zone attempts and they played high scoring West Virginia. On 3rd down both teams are close, but again Syracuse comes out overall 43 % to 41.4% on offense they have a 10% advantage in the home/away and their defense has stepped it up in conference play against teams they know. They held South Florida to 9 points last year on the road. The turf is the one reason why South Florida is favored and I just do not see it being a reason for a bad team to be favored on the road.