4.5* NCAAF Prime Time Action - Chick-Fil-A Bowl 7:30pm et

[Pick Bot]

We have had 3 heart breaking losses in the last two days alone. Notre Dame blowing it, Washington blowing it, and then last night Iowa pulled within 7 late in the 4th to let a 4th and inches 30 yard touch down run with 40 seconds left in the game was another win that squares all over did not deserve. We look to bounce back on New Years eve so don't miss out on the prime time Chick-Fil-A bowl between the ACC and the SEC, the pick is guaranteed and of course comes with a full in depth analysis!

Virginia +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* play
Auburn lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator to Ark state and Central Florida. Plus they lose their top back in Michael Dyer in this one. Though Auburn always has depth at RB his leadership can't go unnoticed. Meanwhile it's a different story for Virginia who under Mike London has turned the program around. Of course they came up short with a chance to go to the ACC Championship losing 38-0 to Virginia Tech, but I think they've regrouped and I think they got a good match up in this bowl game and they'll be motivated to take down last year's National Champion.

Auburn juggles 3 QB's this year and none of them have been great. Virginia's experienced secondary led by Chase Minnifield and S Rodney McLeod should be able to shut it down. Auburn is 106th in passing offense and do most of their damage on the ground it will be critical for Virginia to be able to limit the big plays they gave up earlier in the year in this one. Fortunately Virginia did clean that up and are ranked 32nd in rushing defense. They allow just 3.8 yards per carry ranked 41st, and they are 24th in first downs allowed rushing per game which will be huge in 3rd and short situations. Auburn is 16th in rushing % running the ball 61.53% of the time. Virginia will have to run and keep the clock ticking themselves so they can hold up all 4 quarters.

Virginia's rushing attack led by Perry Jones and Kevin Parks averaging 5.02 and 4.69 ypc should be able to pick up yards with a down hill approach where Auburn is weak. If they start to try to take it outside they won't be successful. Auburn has allowed 5.05 ypc this year on the road and 4.66 overall. They haven't dominated a single game in run defense and it's the reason they are ranked 99th. I also think Virginia can have some success passing the ball on Auburn as Auburn may be 44th in passing yards allowed they are 91st in opponent passer rating allowing 142 QB rating. Virginia is just better and more balanced offensively and defensively. The reason they are not favored is because they are from the ACC.

Virginia 39.44% on third downs compared to Auburns 35%. That's key because Virginia can stop the run and the pass and are holding opponents to 33.15% on third down and even better 29.6% on the road while Auburn is allowing 53.73% conversions on the road. Auburn also has just 31 attempts in the red zone compared to Virginia's 42. Avoid the big play and Virginia should be able to hold this offense in check. Defensively Virginia is among the best in red zone defense holding opponents to 47% TD percentage and 41% over their last 8 games while Auburn is allowing more attempts and 63% TD's. Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and Auburn is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the ACC. They lost earlier in the year to Clemson 24 to 38. I see a closer game but with Virginia coming out on top 24 to 21.