5.5* NCAAF POD - National Title Game - LSU vs. Alabama

[Pick Bot]

It's the last game of the season and you do not want to miss out on my in depth analysis that will have you super confident in your bet on Monday night. I'm undefeated in my career going 3-0 in 3 National Championships and I expect that to continue on Monday. We are 11-4 in our last 15 NCAAF, and 110-68 in our L178 and we were the nation's #1 handicapper in 2011-12 for college football. This pick is guaranteed or 1 day is FREE!

ALABAMA -1 5.5* NCAAF POD
We were on LSU the first time around and if you watched the game you know Alabama would have been the right play as Bama's interception down the middle of the field on a jump ball that got picked off at their own 1 yard line was the difference in the game. That and the fact that they went 2-6 from FG's otherwise they had complete control of that game and revenge will be a huge advantage for this team and is probably the reason they are favorites despite playing in LSU's home state. I'll break down some key aspects to each team's statistics and strategy this year.

Quarterbacks & Pass Defense:
Jordan Jefferson gives LSU more offense and I expect him to get 90% of the snaps in the title game. Jefferson is known for not being super accurate, but he has converted over 60% of his passes thus far and was 6-10 vs. Alabama the first time, but Alabama should come up with the necessary adjustments as they held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempts and 48.3% conversions and a 83.94 QB rating while picking off 12 passes and allowing just 6 passing TD's this year. AJ McCarron on the other hand got better with every game and was 16-28 for 199 yards in the first game. Bama did have two uncharacteristic turnovers one on a trick play when they let WR Marquis Maze pass which ultimately cost them in a game which had the feeling of them dominating. LSU's pass defense is solid and their corner backs are better than Bama's but I still give Alabama the advantage as LSU's pass defense allows 1 more yard per attempt at 5.4, 51.1%, and a 93.07 QB rating, but they only allowed 7 passing TD's and had 6 more interceptions with 18 on the season.

Penalties, Special Teams & Turnovers
Alabama is cleaner and penalized 2.2 times less than LSU on the season and they were penalized 6 times to LSU's 7. Alabama has one of the best coverage units and I doubt they let Tyrann Mathieu touch it. In the first game they dominated field position all game long so special teams did not seem to be the issue and both teams were even in TO margin which again giving the ball up two times was not like Alabama or LSU. I expect Alabama to have better FG opportunities and they'll punt before they try a long FG which should help them even more in field position.

Rushing Offense & Defense
LSU on paper had more rushing yards than Alabama in the first game but to me Alabama had much more success. LSU never allows a RB to get into a rhythm and I think that's a big deal. On the other side Trent Richardson is a beast and he's been here before. Against Texas the #1 run defense in 2009 he had 19 carries for 109 yards in the National Championship as a freshmen. In the first game he ran for 89 yards on 23 carries while Spencer Ware had 16 carries for 23 yards for LSU. Just like the passing defense of Alabama allowing 1 yard less per attempt, the Alabama Run defense is allowing 0.9 yards less than LSU and they have the better running game. Opponents have only rushed for 1st downs 3.6 times per game against Alabama's defense while they have rushed for 5.6 per game vs. LSU which will be key since both teams will want to pick up first downs on the ground.

3rd Downs:
In the match up it was Alabama that was 5-13 and LSU just 3-11. ON the season Alabama has the offensive advantage probably because they are more balanced with a more accurate QB in McCarron. They converted 48.7% on the year and 49.06% in conference games while LSU converted 46.84% but only 41.75% in conference games and converted 39.29% on the road and were 1-9 against Georgia in the SEC Championship game and in the first half they had 6 possessions and had 6 3 and outs. There is no better defense in the nation on third down than Alabama. Defensively Alabama is also the better team holding opponents amazingly to 25% conversions on third down and just 22.02 % in conference games. Meanwhile LSU holds opponents to 34.87%, but 40% on the road and 34.4% in conference play.

Red Zone:
Okay both defenses were outstanding this year. Alabama only allowed 17 attempts all year in 12 games and only 12 attempts in 8 conference games while LSU just as good 23 attempts in 13 games and 13 attempts in 9 conference games. Alabama is a bit better at holding opponents out of the end zone 35.29% allowing just 6 TD's all year while LSU allowed 12 in 23 attempts. Offensively both teams got there and this is one edge LSU does have scoring 72.13% of their 61 attempts, but they were 0-3 vs. Alabama the first time around and I expect Alabama's defense to continue that success which will out weigh the small advantage LSU has on getting the ball in the end zone.

Final Remarks:
LSU to me just relies to much on special teams and turnovers and that's really not where Alabama will make mistakes. We saw the offensive weaknesses of LSU in their last 2 games vs. Arkansas and Georgia in which they trailed 10-0 and 14-0 and the countless 3 and outs. They can't afford that to happen vs. Alabama but I don't know how they can avoid it. I give a small coaching advantage to Nick Saban he'll have his team ready to win this one after losing a heart breaker at home the first time around. He was able to get his team to put up 37 points vs. another top 5 defense in 2009 so I'm confident Alabama will win this game setting up a lot of controversy on why LSU had to play Alabama again.