Super Bowl 46 - RARE 6* play w/ Total Bonus -27-12 L39 Fball

[Pick Bot]

Wow, what a great year and we are closing out the season on a high note like last year. We are in the green on our POD's and for our career we are over 60% ATS on NFL POD's. We hit on all but one of our MAX NFL POD's this post season! This play package comes with our play on the spread as well as a bonus on the total and they are both backed by a full in depth analysis guaranteed or 7 days of ALL SPORTS ARE FREE!



Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 53.5 (3.3* play)

Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.