4.5* MLB POD Goes Early - #Phillies vs. #Mets w/ bonus DOG p

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss out on today's MLB POD fresh off our 2-0 day yesterday as we continue to profit in MLB POD's this year. This one goes early and is guaranteed or 1 day is free backed by a full in depth analysis with a bonus .

Phillies -145 (4.5* MLB POD)
Not a ton of value here, but I believe it will be an easy win. Jonathan Niese looked great in his opening day start at home, but the road was not as kind to him last year where he posted a 5.33 ERA. Although I expect better things from Niese on the road this year looking at his xFIP I don't expect it today because I expect a bit of a let down after he carried a no hitter for most of the game in his last start before giving up 3 ER. He has not had that much success against the Phillies in the past and Utley/Howard not in the line up actually hurts him as the lefties were just 3-22 vs. Niese. Replace those bats with righties and advantage goes back to the Phillies who have roughed Niese up pretty hard in their ballpark. Niese's last 3 starts here have resulted in 16 ER over just 14.1 IP while giving up 24 hits and 4BB. Mayberry and Polanco have been the reason and they are both in the line up today along with Hunter Pence in the clean up spot who can do damage against LHP.

On the other side I think it's a mistake the Mets start David Wright who is 1-7 against Worley who had a 2.34 ERA at home including 2 GS 13 IP 7 hits and 1 ER at home vs. the Mets. Worley's xFIP is in the 3's from last year. The Phillies are also 43-18 in their last 61 vs. a LH starter and are built to beat lefties more without Howard and Utley in the line up. They are also 11-3 in Worley's last 14 as a favorite.

Astros +140 2* free play
I like the Astros today because I'm still not buying into Zambrano who did look good at times on his opening day start but Bud Norris looked better vs. the Rockies going 7 innings giving up 2 ER. A consistent xFIP guy in the 3's Norris is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball because he pitches for Houston. Zambrano also comes off a spring in which he had a 2.03 WHIP and 6.23 ERA. It also doesn't help him that he has to face Carlos Lee who is 24-67 with 5HR and a 1.098 OPS lifetime. Norris also has an ERA during night starts that is more than a run better than Zambrano. So far this season the Astros have a better approach at the plate to as they have a .740 OPS vs. RHP while the Marlins are 23rd with a .631 OPS vs. RHP. Marlins are also 13-38 in their last 51 home games vs. a RH starter.