4.5*** MLB play of the day @SFGiants vs @Reds

[Pick Bot]

Giants +136 4.5* MLB pod
Giants +136 4.5* MLB POD
I see a ton of value in the Giants today facing elimination.  They were too good down the stretch winning 15 of their last 21 road games and they have better stats on the road than the Reds have at home vs. RHP if you can believe that.  The Reds are far better hitting the ball against LHP as they have 9 righties in the line up.  Vogelson is much better vs. RH batters holding them to a .653 OPS on the year and has a 3.87 ERA on the road.  He’s got 4 starts vs. the Reds and a decent 3.96 ERA the last two years.
 
Bailey on the other hand is coming off a 4 inning appearance 0 ER vs. STL to end the season and that was after he threw his no hitter.  Pitchers who throw no hitters tend to have a hang over in their outings after throwing that type of a game and it’s something that usually lingers.  Bailey already has been a poor pitcher at home with a 5.11 ERA this year and in his lone start this year he pitched 6.1 IP gave up 2 ER and 9 BR, but he still faces a line up that has more balance and scored more runs vs. RHP and is not the Giants offense of previous years.  IN his previous three starts vs. the Giants he has given up 15 ER in 17 innings.  I look for the Giants bats to wake up a bit here and for the Reds to struggle.  It’s not like the Reds have played well at home in the playoffs.   I think their last win was like 17 years ago and that gets delayed for one day at least.