4.4* NFL Play Sunday - Eagles vs. Falcons - 71-46 L117 NFL P

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss out we capped off a 4-3 week last week after a bad Sunday as we were 3-0 on Thursday and Monday. Sunday's picks are already out with this 4.4* winner guaranteed or one day is FREE!

Eagles -1 4.4* NFL PLAY
Both teams are off byes. Andy Reid is 13-0 following a bye week, but he's also 10-3 ATS and has average winning margin of 10.38 pts per game. This may be his stiffest challenge facing a Falcons team that's undefeated but as we saw in the Falcons last game they are definitely beatable and have some glaring weaknesses that we will go over here in a minute.

Actually the Falcons in 2008 faced this same situation after a bye going to Philadelphia who was also coming off a bye and they lost by 13 points.

TEAM STRENGTHS:
Atlanta, has found success the most when they have the lead in the game. Opposing teams have run the ball on them just 44% of the time because they are forced to throw and that has forced them to hide a glaring weakness that even Andy Reid should be able to discover and that's defending the run as they are 31st against the run. Combination of Vick and the leagues most dangerous RB in McCoy should fix that.

Atlanta is also 5th in passing play % throwing the ball 64% and lacking any sort of balance. They go up against an Eagles team whose strength is defending the pass. Eagles have held QB's to 52% completion percentage among the best in the league.

Eagles are 30th in scoring offense despite being 7th in yards/game, the reason? Turnovers and they are 26th in TD% in the red zone. They go up against a team that allows 64% touchdowns int he red zone and struggle against the run. For some reason teams continue to throw at the Eagles despite their success in pass defense. Opponents have thrown at Eagles 38x game 5th most.

STRENGTH vs. STRENGTH:
This game on paper appears to be strength vs. strength which is the Eagles defense vs. Falcons offense. Eagles fired their defensive coordinator during the bye week and now they have a first time coordinator. To me it's a good thing as the Eagles have given up 4th quarter leads and lacked the aggressiveness they always had. They were #1 in sack % last year and this year they are 31st. Expect that to change also expect it to be very hard for the Falcons offense to plan without knowing what this defense is going to look like because of the change. There is no history to draw upon.

DIFFERENCE MAKERS: ATLANTA IS 0-7 @PHILLY
Atlanta struggled vs. 2 mobile QB's RG3 and Cam Newton and had to make come backs in the 4th quarters in both.
Eagles 3rd down defense 29% conversions allowed 24.32% at home, Falcons are 4th on the year in converting third downs, but they have faced teams that struggle in stopping opponents on third down especially in their road games (19th average defense). Falcons also allow 47% conversions on the road. Eagles should win the third down battle.
Home field advantage - Eagles have already beat Baltimore and the NY Giants here, and the Lions over came a 2 possesion 4th quarter deficit.

FINAL THOUGHTS:
Again I can't help myself in a match up where the general public loves the Falcons because of their record and their hype around their fantasy players Ryan, Jones, and White., Eagles can avoid the turnovers they could win this game easily, what have the Falcons actually proved? Road games against Chiefs, Chargers, and Redskins and nearly losing to the Panthers at home?