1.1* NFL Free Play Thursday - #Bills vs. #Dolphins

[Pick Bot]

Bills -1 1.1* FREE PLAY
No significant play here tonight, but I do lean towards the Bills as I believe a lot of teams have started to catch up to the Dolphins coaching staff. Over there past three games the offense has been terrible averaging less than 300 yards total. I'm not so sure they can take advantage of the Bills poor defensive play at least not on the road. If you are one to look at recent common opponents both teams played the Titans at home and lost, but Buffalo lost by 1 point while putting up 34 points and the Dolphins put up 3 points. I think we can all agree Buffalo's offense has more talent and the Miami defense has more talent, but Miami has some big weaknesses and despite playing well over the first half of the season are due to come back to earth a bit.

First of all they are one of the worst teams against the pass allowing 278 yards a game and Ryan Fitzpatrick is fully capable of distributing the ball and making big plays. Miami on the other hand looks to exploit the Bills run defense that has been bad, but they are only averaging a meager 3.1 yards per carry on the road which is last in the league. Reggie Bush has disappeared and I believe that the Bills might even have the advantage in the running game. The Dolphins gave up over 120 yards to Chris Johnson last week, but the Bills zone run blocking scheme is better especially with C.J. Spiller taking all the snaps as will be the case tonight. Spiller rushed for 91 yards on just 12 carries last year vs. the Dolphins at home and he leads the league in 7.3 ypc this year. He now has another opportunity and he's a competitive guy that's not going to waste it. The Bills are #2 in the league rushing for 5.3 ypc and this is a rare game where Miami can get beat on the ground and through the air. Miami will have its hands full as the Bills have converted 51% of their third downs at home and while Miami's defense has been good ranked 6th they have given up 49% conversions in their last three combined. Buffalo is the worst in stopping teams on third down, but like already mentioned I believe the Dolphins offense is struggling to much for that to be an advantage. They have no balance and their only play maker seems to be still injured. They have only converted 27% of their third downs over their last 3 games and 31% overall on the road. Their QB has just a 73.2 QB rating and has 5 TD to 9 interceptions.