3.5* #NFL Early Bird Special - #Steelers vs. #Browns

[Pick Bot]

Tough day yesterday that could have easily been different. It started with Texas Tech being -4 in TO margin and losing in over time. One pass actually went off an offensive lineman's helmet for an interception in a tie game with Tech driving for the win. Then Baylor lined up for the winning FG that would have given us the win at +3.5, but he missed it and then we lost by a TD in OT. USC against Notre Dame was another head scratcher as Lane Kiffin continues to be one of the most over rated coaches. 5 plays inside the 5 yard line and you can't come up with a play that gets you a TD? They were also inside the 5 earlier in the game and got stuffed. You can't run on Notre Dame inside the 5 and I don't know how Kiffin did not know that but he easily cost many of my backers another cover. Today I look to rebound in the early slate of games with just one play between two division foes. The play is guaranteed backed by a full in depth analysis.

Browns +3 buy 1/2 -120 3.5* play
The Browns are not a 2-8 team and they arguably have a top 5 pass defense although the stats do not indicate that. They were the leagues best pass defense last year and over their last 4 games they have allowed less than 200 yards passing and that included shutting down Tony Romo last week without Joe Haden who will be returning this week. The Steelers have just 1 offensive TD since losing Big Ben, and with 37 year old Charlie Batch takes over after Leftwhich was injured a week ago. I don't see how the Steelers can move the ball through the air in this one and that means the Steelers will rely solely on their defense and running game.

That running game is not that good, they are only 21st in the league in ypc on the year and the Browns have stuffed the run allowing 4.0 ypc at home and 3.4 ypc over their last three games. Browns have excellent corners and will be able to concentrate on the running game and force the Steelers in third and long situations. The Browns are 12th in the league in third down defense and have allowed just 36% conversions on the season. The Steelers have struggled to convert third downs without Big Ben in there to extend plays where he was the leagues best.

The second thing the Steelers rely on is also over rated despite being #1 in the league in total defense this team is 31st in takeaways, which is something they will need today, but I don't think will get. The Browns are 4th in takeaways when they play at home averaging 2.2 per game. The Steelers defense is also allowing 46.67% conversions on third downs and are 14th in red zone TD%, and 23rd allowing 62.5% TD's in the red zone in road games.

I look for the Browns to steal this division game at home. This team could easily be 4-6 or better and are still not getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers. Steelers are 5-16-1 ATS int heir last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Browns are 9-2-1 ATS following a SU loss.