Thursday' Night's Big East Battle For BCS - #Rutgers vs. #Lo

[Pick Bot]

Both Louisville and Rutgers come into this game off losses which make this match up a little less exciting if you ask me, but I'm still pumped up to see what transpires between these two teams that have been in the media a ton lately because they are ditching the Big East for the Big Ten and the ACC. But on Thursday night they will face off in one of their biggest conference games ever and the victor will be heading to a BCS bowl game. My play comes with a full in depth analysis and is guaranteed or one day is FREE. If I do lose that means you get the MAC & PAC 12 Championship games Friday!

Rutgers -2.5 -115 (buy 1/2) 4.6** NCAAF POD
Rutgers has not beaten Louisville in quite some time and this is the perfect spot for them to seek their revenge. Rutgers is loaded with experienced players and leadership on both sides of the ball while Louisville still remains a young team that is struggling to the finish line. A lot of these players on Louisville are playing their 12th game and it's a lot in college football. They are banged up at RB losing their leading rusher Senorise Perry, and QB as Terry Bridgewater hurt his leg and broke his non-throwing arm. Bridgewater will play, but he'll be forced into the shutgun for the entire game.

That's a huge advantage for Rutgers as Louisville shrinks it's playbook. Louisville is struggling big time to run the ball just 75 yards in their last 2 games combined and it's no coincidence that it was their first two losses of the season. Well running against Rutgers with injuries is going to be even more impossible. Rutgers is 13th in ypc run defense in the nation and ranks higher than Uconn who just dominated this group up front. I see DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene leading the way to plugging the running game. Rutgers defense on the back end is also very good they have more interceptions than TD allowed. Louisville has been very good at limiting turnovers, but they have not faced many teams that can stop the run and the pass and this is clearly the best defense they faced all year. Louisville's road schedule was extremely weak playing two of the worst teams in college football and struggling against winless Southern Miss, and FIU and then they were dominated by Syracuse, a team Rutgers is better than. Meanwhile Rutgers only lost was to Kent State (before their look ahead loss to Pitt (off a bye) last week), a team that will be going to a BCS game possibly if they can win the MAC, a conference that's better than the Big East in my opinion.

The line is low because Rutgers offense has struggled, and Gary Nova has 10 interceptions over his last 4 games, but Louisville is 70th in takeaways, and 124th on the road. That's probably because they are unable to create 3rd and long situations and get off the field on third down as well as create any sort of pressure. To put things in perspective, Louisville is -8 in tackles for loss (allowing more), and -3 in sacks and Rutgers is +18 in tackles for loss and +10 in sacks. Louisville also allowed more than 50% conversions to 3 of their 4 road opponents and 52% overall. Their road opponents were ranked 76th, 82nd, and 72nd in third downs and Syracuse converted 73% and was ranked 11th. This may be one of the few games in a while Rutgers can convert on third down which should be a major advantage. Don't sleep on Rutgers running game as Louisville's run defense is quite vulnerable allowing 4.62 ypc in conference play and 4.30 ypc on the road. Rutgers relies on the run 57% of the time over their last 3 games alone and even though Jawan Jamison is a little banged up SAvon Huggins has shown he can carry the load (179 yards at Cincinatti - only allows 3.86 ypc in conference play) - Huggins did that on the road and now he's home against a Louisville run defense that's worst. Louisville will have to be careful about stacking the box, because Rutgers has a trio of WR that if left alone create major mismatches. Brandon Coleman is 6-6, Mark Harrison is 6-3, and Tim Wright is 6-4.

Apart from those advantages Rutgers also has the advantage in the red zone as they have converted 69% of their attempts into TD's at home while Louisville is allowing 78.5% on the road. Rutgers defense also has been great in the red zone allowing just 40% conversions and 37.5% in conference play. Louisville will be really predictable when they get down there out of the shotgun and I anticipate some interceptions from Bridgewater in this game that will allow Rutgers to cover this spread. Rutgers is 4-1 at home and their wins have come by an average of nearly 18 points.