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Thursday's 2 Play #NCAAF Package Including 4.4* NCAAF POD

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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Thursday's 2 Play #NCAAF Package Including 4.4* NCAAF POD

Postby Pick Bot » Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:03 pm

Two plays tomorrow night coming in the Pac 12 and the SEC vs. ACC match up between North Carolina and South Carolina backed by a full in depth analysis! Don't forget to pick up my DISCOUNT PACKAGES still discounted for early birds and guaranteed!

If you read my SEC College Football Preview & Odds article you'll know I'm very high on South Carolina. Everyone is raving about Jadeveon Clowney but they forget Connor Shaw missed a lot of time last year and returns. The Gamecocks have not lost a game at home as a double digit favorite since 2004 and I don't anticipate it Thursday night. In fact I see them dominating from start to finish with Shaw playing like he has a chip on his shoulder. He knows he can't take anything for granted with his injury history and he's said several times this off season they can't look past UNC who has a very good QB of their own in Bryan Renner, but the strengths and weaknesses for both teams put South Carolina in a huge advantage.

First of all UNC's defense lacks edge pressure and they are weak at linebacker up the middle leaving them vulnerable up the gut which is the very spot the Gamecocks will look to attack. South Carolina is very strong up front with 4 returning offensive linement, but their weakness is speed rushers which North Carolina does not have this year. UNC actually runs an odd 4-2-5 scheme but they lack the pieces including the BANDIT which is the key position. So what happens is teams like this get pushed and that's what I think will happen on Thursday night. The running game will set up the passing game for Connor Shaw and South Carolina has a lot of speed and athleticism at receiver that should take advantage of UNC's talented secondary because Shaw will have time and he can also create plays with his feet.

UNC comes in with a rebuilt offensive line with 3 new starters. This team also lost their top running back which won't be an issue by season end but I don't see them being able to run against South Carolina who allowed just 2.6 ypc at home. The Gamecocks are vulnerable against the run but we won't know it on Thursday since they are home and facing a team with a new offensive line. Renner will likely turn to the passing game at some point which won't be a good idea with the pass rushing skills South Carolina has with Clowney and senior Chaz Sutton. North Carolina had a terrific season last year offensively which is why they are getting a ton of respect with this line, but they really did not have any tough road games like this. Their up tempo spread attack will have issues against a good pass rush.

Utah State +3 -115 3* play
Maybe an in state rivalry is forming here? Anyway Utah lost last year 27-20 on the road and they look at revenge, but I don't see them getting it here. They are implementing a new spread offense that I don't think works well with QB Travis Wilson and they can't run the ball ranking 108th and 102nd the last two years. Gone is their best running back John White and 3 multi-year linemen. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen and have transitioned to a smaller quicker defense. These type of drastic changes usually don't pay off early in the season.

Utah State on the other hand brings back 14 starters 7 on offense and defense. Their defense is stacked with the best linebackers in the Mountain West in Zach Vigil and Jake Doughtry. Their front 3 are big and active with an elite pass rusher in Connor Williams. This is a team that only allowed 30% TD conversions int he red zone and 32% third down conversions. Meanwhile Utah allowed 72% red zone conversions. The defense was ranked 14th last year and dominated at times against some pretty good teams. Offensively their QB is the best player on the field in Chuckie Keeton who is a dual threat QB with nearly 4,000 yards of total offense over 30 TD to just 9 interceptions. He did lose some receivers and his starting running back, but he brings back all 5 starters on the offensive line which is huge. Joe Hill will fit in fine with this group that has turned around NFL running backs in back to back years.
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