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5.5* #NCAAF POD - #NotreDame vs. #MichiganSt 9% ROI on POD's

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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5.5* #NCAAF POD - #NotreDame vs. #MichiganSt 9% ROI on POD's

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:32 pm

Another great match up between Notre Dame and a Big Ten rival. We have a great in depth analysis full of statistics and trends that yo won't want to miss reading if you are going to bet on this game. I've read and watched just about every bit of information on this match up and I'm extremely confident in this play and you will be too once you purchase.

Michigan State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; Michigan St +175 1* bonus
Notre Dame won the last two meetings and has Oklahoma up next while Michigan State has a bye. Michigan State has line value here because despite being 3-0 everyone is saying they haven't played anyone and they have struggled at times. Which is true they opened up the year against Western Mich, South Florida and Youngstown State. However, they had weather issues against Western Mich that stopped their offense from moving the ball and they also played the first 2 games like an NFL pre season allowing the position battles to continue into those games which can create a lot of sloppy play and guys looking over their shoulder, but against Youngstown State we saw the offense start to click as Mike Dantonio named his starting QB in Connor Cook with a ton of confidence.

Connor Cook is a confidenct young QB that is often described as fearless which is a good thing to have going on the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense has not played well and their defensive line is not getting the pass rush they were supposed to be getting. Michigan State has recruited some speedier players to play on the perimeter especially in the running game and those are the type of players that have plagued Notre Dame to start this season. Cook was 15-22 for 202 yards and 4TD's against Youngstown before being rested and has plenty of confidence going into this game against a Notre Dame team that is struggling to prevent TD's in the red zone allowing 72% TD percentage this should be a game Michigan State wins, because their defense is that good.

Okay, they have not played anyone, but there is no way a struggling Notre Dame running game is going to get going against Michigan State who is just elite against the run and returns 3 senior linebackers including Max Bullough and Denicos Allen. The Irish are ranked 92nd in running the ball so far this season which means they are going to lean heavily on Tommy Rees who is 15-5 as a starter and that's where I'm confident the Spartans will come out on top.

Rees is 11-0 against teams that have finished their season with 6 or more losses, but against teams with 5 or less losses he's just 4-5 with 13 TD and 12 INT's. Those stats continue into this season and it's clear he can beat the bad teams, but not the good ones. Michigan State has arguably the best defense of Dantonio era. He's got 3 upper classmen in the secondary. I mentioned the experience at linebacker and finally they have a guy that can rush the passer which has been missing from Spartan defenses in the past. Shilique Calhoun is a hell of an athlete and he will lead the pass rush along with Denicos Allen from the linebacking spot which will create turnovers from Tommy Rees. The Spartans so far this year have allowed 34.6% completion percentage and 15.5% third down conversions and should not be phased by coming to Notre Dame because they have been here plenty of times before. Rees started the season facing the 75th, 76th and 113th ranked pass defenses and now he faces Michigan State that was 7th last year and 6th this year. Michigan State was also 3rd in opponent QB rating last year and is 1st this year. The real difference is sack % they were 87th last year and so far they are ranked 13th.
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