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4.4** NCAAF POD + 3.3** bonus - 34-18 ATS L52 NCAAF!

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.4** NCAAF POD + 3.3** bonus - 34-18 ATS L52 NCAAF!

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:03 pm

Don't miss out on Saturday's rebound package after a couple of tough losses last night I am still on a 34-18 run ATS in my college football plays on our way to another winning season!

Houston +3 -105 BOVADA 4.4* NCAAF POD; Under 52.5 3.3* Bonus
This is an interesting battle between two teams that were well coached this year and have very different identities. Houston wants to pass it as they were ranked 11th in pass play % and they had a true freshman at the helm doing it in Joe O'Korn who had a very under rated year. While Vanderbilt is without their starting QB and have to turned to an inexperienced QB in red shirt freshman Patton Robinette. I really like Houston and the under in this game.

First things I looked at was how is Houston scoring points. Their high totals were either when they significantly won the TO margin by more than +1 or they were able to pass all over a defense or were in a highly paced game. Vanderbilt is about as middle of the road in turnovers, but I think they will lean a lot on the run today and the TO margin won't be there. However, I do like Houston to win the TO margin as they have done in 10 of their 12 games. The 2 they did not win it they were even so that's an advantage I like for them winning this game.

Since we know Houston wants to pass first I took a look at a few variances in terms of where they ranked, who they faced, where they struggled and how often they did better than the competitions season average. Results were a bit shocking, because I did not think Houston had a great passing game or at least it is not as good as previous seasons with Case Keenum. With that said they faced an average passing defense ranked 57th in QB rating. They were able to have a higher passer rating in 6 of the 11 games they faced. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses just like Vanderbilt and were only able to pass over their average defense allowed two times and both those times came early in the season. Houston really struggled down the stretch passing the ball when they had the trio of games vs. Cinci, Louisville and Central Florida which ironically were their 3 losses and all three of those games were low scoring games. Next I looked at Vanderbilt's pass defense to see how legit they are because they are 39th in QB rating and 11th yards per attempt but 93rd in completion %. They allow a lot of under neath and that could be troublesome against Houston's athletic speedy receivers. However, Vanderbilt held 11 of their 11 opponents under their season average for QB rating and they did so against a 61st ranked QB rating on average. My conclusion is that Houston will have some success but not enough to dominate this game as Vanderbilt will make some key stops to stay in the game throughout.

The next thing I looked at was Vanderbilt s key to success to move the ball which is running the ball. Vanderbilt was not very good at it ranked 105th so there is optimism that they may just ditch that game plan, but I don't see that happening here considering their offensive line is leaky and Houston is great at getting to the QB and forcing mistakes which Vanderbilt knows they have to avoid against the best TO margin team in the country.... So running it is and that should slow the game significantly. Houston however is 16th vs. the run and they held 9 of their 11 opponents under their average. The average rushing offense combined they faced was 71st. Vanderbilt averaged only 3.53 ypc and you can expect them to average under 3 today because they faced an average run defense ranked 76th on the season and 10 of their 11 games they were held under their average. Their offensive line is just not very good at protecting the QB and making room for this running game. Even the game they averaged 5.89 ypc it was against a defense ranked 120th allowing 5.8 ypc. My conclusion is that Vanderbilt won't be able to move the ball at all on the ground, but will continue to try because that's what they do and Patton Robinette is not capable even against Texas A&M his highest out put of passing attempts he was 15-28 216 yards and 2 interceptions with 1 TD. A&M was one of the worst passing defenses this year ranked 85th while Houston is 23rd. That's a huge risk if they go to the air and it can only result in a Houston victory. Houston is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC.
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