Teaser of the Week - NCAAF - 11-1 TEASER THIS SEASON!

[Pick Bot]

LA TECH PK / USC -1 4.4* TEASER
LA TECH...
Illinois is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 on Turf and I actually think LA Tech has more talent despite Illinois playing in a power conference. Illinois might be the worst bowl team in all of the bowl games. I think they got lucky at the end of the year to work to 6-6 and I think LA Tech should win this one by double digits. Conference - USA is actually 3-0 in bowl games with some big wins already from Rice by 24 points, Marshall by 29, and Western Kentucky by 1. LA Tech had every chance to beat Marshall and they were playing with several suspended players which won't be an issue here for them going up against a team that is not top 75 in offense or defensive yards per play. Meanwhile LA Tech is top 45 in each and their schedule featured several top 25 teams including Oklahoma, Auburn, and Marshall so the strength of schedule numbers are there.

Illinois defense is going to be the biggest issue on why they won't be able to stay in this game, because LA Tech's defense is very very good. They will give up the passing yards, but mostly when they are up big which they have been a lot this year. Otherwise they have 25 interceptions and Illinois is definitely turnover prone. La Tech's offense could struggle, but Illinois has been so bad at stopping both the run and pass that I think LA Tech could keep them guessing all day. LA Tech also has better %'s in 3rd down offense and defense and red zone TD% offense and defense by an average of 9.25% which is significant.

USC -1
I like USC here for a few reasons.. First of all both offenses are very good, but Nebraska is just more one dimensional with their attack. I think USC can stop the run if that is all they have to concentrate on and they are ranked 26th in adjusted line yards on the defensive line where Nebraska is ranked 88th. Nebraska has been awful stopping the run and when USC can run the ball they almost always win. USC will have a dual offense in this game and arguably the better defense so I expect them to be able to win this game. They are also better in 4 of my 5 important categories and have done so with the more challenging schedule. When Nebraska has to try to pass the ball to win this game I see a few turnovers happening that could turn this game into a double digit win and the only reason I won't play this game on the spread is if that does not happen I could see a FG type game, but overall I think USC is motivated to win this game since they are playing a power conference opponent like Nebraska who is also without their head coach who got fired for winning 10 games a year. Good luck Nebraska.