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4.4* NCAAF POD + Total Bonus Peach Bowl Guaranteed 2-0

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.4* NCAAF POD + Total Bonus Peach Bowl Guaranteed 2-0

Postby Pick Bot » Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:32 pm

Don't miss out on our play of the day in the Peach Bowl between the SEC and the Big 12. Ole Miss at one point was predicted to be playing on New Years day while we know the story with TCU. This play does come with a play on the total and the side and is guaranteed to go 2-0 or you get New Year's day package absolutely FREE! We also have an all day pass on New Years that you will want to pick up before lines move!

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS
Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by. This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them. This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams. TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now. Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win? West Virginia? Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss.

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest. This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles. Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff." Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them. I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead. TCU is an elite offense right? Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's? I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better.

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone. Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring. TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves. Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain. The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games. Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average. TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.
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