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TOTAL ALERT *POD - 39-22 ATS Career on Totals! +TEASER OF TH

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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TOTAL ALERT *POD - 39-22 ATS Career on Totals! +TEASER OF TH

Postby Pick Bot » Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:03 pm

Don't miss out on Freddy's Friday selection on the total between Boise State and Utah State. Freddy is an amazing 39-22 ATS in his career on total plays in college football. He does not release a lot of them, but this is the time of year he does and he has cashed well over 60% in his career. Also included in this play is a TEASER of the week bonus which has gone 15-4 since last season! This package is guaranteed or Freddy's card for Saturday is on the house!

Boise / Utah St U51 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the value that we are getting with this total as each team is coming off consecutive games with putting up a lot of points and this total is definitely inflated. When I look at adjusted statistics which factor in garbage time and all other kind of metrics Utah State's offense is ranked 97th, and Boise State's offense is ranked 73rd. The adjusted defenses are 22nd and 32nd so both teams rely on their defenses to win. The only way I see this going over is on a crazy return for TD or points off turnovers which Utah State has been very good at eliminating with just 1 turnover at home and 7 all together. Boise has relied quite heavily on the turnovers with 16 forced this season. Boise has also relied on big plays to score their points and I don't see Utah State giving them up.

I also wanted to look at what each team did when they struggled to score points. For Boise State it was pretty easy they struggled in the passing game and had to rely on running the ball. In both games against BYU & Washington Boise struggled to pass the ball and the same could happen tonight considering Utah State has a very good passing defense that's even better at home. Mark Rypien has looked like a stud since he took over 4 games ago, but he's played Idaho State, and 3 defenses that are not ranked inside the top 60 in passing defense or rushing defense. So all of the defenses he's faced were not good at stopping anything and now he goes on the road to face a Utah State team that is very good at stopping both particularly at home. I do see Boise State winning this game, but it's more because of their defense. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Boise State is just 61% in the red zone for TD% and they are only 35.96% on third down and 23% on the road.

Boise State's defense has been awesome and Utah State put up big point numbers in their last two games, but it was against teams that struggle to stop the run. In games Utah State can run for 150 or more yards they have scored 33 and 56, but Boise State is ranked 2nd, and Utah State averages just 14 in the other games this year.

Boise State -1.5 w/ Northwestern +7.5 4.4* Teaser
I really like Boise State to win this game, I don't see Utah State to be able to sustain drives long enough, and their defense is going to be very tired in the second half. For Northwestern on Saturday -

I’ll take the home dog here, I don’t see a big difference between these two teams statistically, and when you factor in that Northwestern has played 4 teams better than Iowa’s top 2 opponents (Pitt & Wisconsin), the stats are definitely inflated in favor of Iowa. Northwestern has the 5th toughest schedule having faced Duke, Minnesota, Stanford and Michigan last week. You can argue right now Michigan and Stanford are the 2 best teams in the nation.

Bettors remember Northwestern going to Michigan and losing 38-0, and they see Iowa coming in undefeated having won on the road against Wisconsin, but this is very misleading. This team was -100 yards and relied on 2 turnovers at Wisconsin. This team has really struggled offensively since they started conference play and that’s not a coincidence. This game will be very much like the Wisconsin game in my opinion although the Northwestern defense is a little better vs. the pass, a little better running the ball, and they don’t make as many mistakes. Wisconsin turned the ball over 4 times in that game alone, Northwestern has 7 total on the year.

The key for Northwestern is not getting off to a slow start. They were fighting the entire game last week and were only able to run the ball 25 times. Northwestern needs to run the ball 45+ times in this game and I think they will considering they have 50 or more rushes in all 5 of their other games. Iowa just 2-11 the last 4 seasons when allowing 46 or more rushes. It’s absolutely the key in this game for Northwestern. Don’t turn the ball over, run the ball, play to your defense and they should win this game at home. The other added benefit is that this running game will be fresh for Northwestern. Justin Jackson had only 12 carries and that should help them bounce back. Northwestern also has an above average home field advantage, and they have been dynamite in key situations overall on the year, but they are allowing only 30% TD’s in the red zone, and 20 % conversions on third down. This should greatly benefit them here.
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