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MAX 5.5* NCAAF POD - 62-42 ATS Career - Guaranteed or $$ Bac

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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MAX 5.5* NCAAF POD - 62-42 ATS Career - Guaranteed or $$ Bac

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:03 pm

Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game. Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game. This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog. Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts. Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th.

Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West. Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough. Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day. I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball. First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road.

Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th. Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall. In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close.
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