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4.4* NCAAF POD Guaranteed - Northern Illinois vs. Toledo

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.4* NCAAF POD Guaranteed - Northern Illinois vs. Toledo

Postby Pick Bot » Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:03 pm

Northern Illinois +7 4.4* POD
Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD

All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS. Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road. Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads. Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game. I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas as they out gained Toledo by 200. Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game. They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won. Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not.

Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight. Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time. Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries. Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff. Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road. Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them.

Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play. A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record. They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards. Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions. Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game. That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance.

Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better. On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%. Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game.
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