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5.5* MAX NCAAF POD - 38-19 ATS L2 months of season career!

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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5.5* MAX NCAAF POD - 38-19 ATS L2 months of season career!

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:32 pm

Freddy releases a max rating 5.5* play for his game of the week and PAC 12 action between USC and Oregon. Freddy has gone 5-1 ATS in his last 6 max rating plays, and 38-19 ATS from November on in college football, that's 66.7% ATS WINNERS on his biggest plays, at the BIGGEST point of the season. Now is the best time to invest in his BOWL package where you'll get all of his picks for the rest of the season. Still plenty of time left in the month of November where Freddy has shown a career profit of 114.19 units, and has a 38-23 ATS career record in week 12 action. This play is guaranteed or your money back!

USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
USC +4.5
This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd. Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does.

Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close. Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5. USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective. USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky. They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship. This game means much more to USC. Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score. That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line. USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year.

I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team. Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks. 3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame. I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week.
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