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Black Friday's MAX POD Guaranteed or 1 day is FREE!

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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Black Friday's MAX POD Guaranteed or 1 day is FREE!

Postby Pick Bot » Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:03 pm

Navy -1 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston. I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward. I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week. The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week. They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year. The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds.

Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry. Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th. Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48. Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame.

Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week. I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country. Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of.

Looking at the conference stats between these two. Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th. Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers. Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128. Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9. Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home. Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts. Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%. 4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate. Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs. I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage. We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago. Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history. I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that.
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