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5.5* MAX RATING NCAAF POD - 21-12 ATS Career Bowl

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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5.5* MAX RATING NCAAF POD - 21-12 ATS Career Bowl

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:03 pm

Freddy releases his New Orleans Bowl pick on the side in tonight's late game between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech. Freddy has gone an amazing 63.6% ATS on his max rating plays of 5 or more units during bowl season over his career and looks to continue that magic here tonight. Don't miss out on this play and more by picking up his complete bowl package where he has profited over $50,000 for $1,000 bettors!

L.A. Tech -1 5.5* NCAAF POD

There is no question that Tech comes out of the better conference in C-USA vs. the Sunbelt. Conference USA was 4-1 in bowl games last year and 15-6 over the last 4 bowl seasons while the Sun Belt went 1-2 last year and 6-6 over the last 4 years. There is no question Tech comes from the better conference that regularly plays more power 5 opponents (25 this season). Tech also comes off two very ugly games where they did not come close to covering the spread, missing by 23 and 39 points. The market has adjusted quite a bit for this show down in New Orleans.

Arkansas State ran the table in the Sun Belt and to me that just shows you how bad this conference has been which has led to some inflated numbers for Arkansas State who likes to run the ball 61% of the time with Gordon at RB, and Fredi Knighten at QB. In wins they rush for a 5.65 yards per carry while losses they average just 2.41. This team has played some pretty terrible run defenses along the way including 4 that rank at the bottom ranking 120th, 121st, 126th, and 127th. Today they face LA Tech who is built to stop the run ranking 12th in the country led by future NFL DT – Vernon Butler. In Arkansas State’s 3 games against run stopping units they lost, and LA Tech’s 13th ranking in yds per carry allowed should be enough to get the job done.

L.A. Tech also has an explosive offense that will key on not turning the ball over. They lost big in their division championship against Southern Miss by turning the ball over 7 times. That’s especially important against Arkansas State who has lived on the turnover. If L.A. Tech protects the ball they win this game going away by double digits. I’m betting they will when you consider 33% of their seasons 21 turnovers came in one game. Jeff Driskel has been great all year, and Kenneth Dixon is one of the best RB’s in the country that nobody knows about with 83 career rushing TD’s. This team is excited to be here and should win this game.
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