Cotton Bowl - Michigan State vs. Alabama

[Pick Bot]

Michigan State +10 3.3* play
This one was an obvious for me with so much line value. There is no doubt in my mind that Michigan State sports the better team, and the more gifted athletes. I mean they have 18 5* recruits to Michigan State's 1. However, I do think Michigan State has enjoyed this role, and these spots. They are 12-1 their last 13 as an under dog under D'antonio and that has to say something about coaching! For me though the SEC is down and getting too much praise right now. They went 2-2 in bowl games last year vs. the Big 10, and Alabama does not have the edge at QB in this match up. The fact of the matter is the SEC does not have many gifted QB's, and Alabama struggled vs. Joel Stave who completed 66.7% of his passes 2 TD's and 1 INT for 228 yards in the beginning of the season. I know that was a long time ago, but I think Michigan State can move the ball a bit here with Cook at QB.

Alabama's offense is very predictable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out passing which could be a mistake against this type of defense, and I don't like Coker here to get the job done to cover this spread. What impressed me the most is Michigan State played 3 very good running teams. They played Iowa ranked 36th in yards, 42nd in yards per carry, and held them to 2.17 ypc and 52 yards well below what any other team did. Michigan State faced Ohio State without Cook mind you and held that running game that ranked 10th in yards, and 8th in yards per carry (with a dual threat QB), and they held them to 2.97 ypc and 86 total yards, again well below what any other team was able to accomplish. Michigan State also played Oregon, a dynamic rushing attack ranked 5th in yards and yards per carry and again this team held them to 2.86 yards per carry and 123 yards well below what any other team was able to achieve. I think when you look at the fact that Auburn's defense held this Alabama offense in check most of the game you are starring right at value. I'm not so sure who is the better coach with extra time to prepare.