NFL Prop Package #2

[Pick Bot]

Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play
I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary.

I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* play
When you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense.

Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play
I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite.

CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play
Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%.

Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play
I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game.