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[Pick Bot]

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Hawaii +20.5 2.2% play
This game is in Syndey Australia – Look aheads for California. Weather 55 degrees. I don’t think Hawaii is ever as bad, but it’s their scheduling that’s really challenging This team opened up and beat Colorado a year ago and after that they really struggled. The traveling takes it’s toll, but luckily we are handicapping game 1 of the season.

California – 9 returning starters. They lose Jarred Goff, despite Sonny Dykes offense being very good typically and the fact that they bring in a capable QB replacement in Davis Webb. I think this is a team that has to run a little more, they lose their top 6 WR’s, they lose a few starters on the offensive line. They made some strides on the defensive side, but now just 5 returning starters and their Safety Drew tore his ACL in the spring. They lost their top 7 starters on defense. Vegas odds has them at 4.5 total wins, they are not high on this team, but that’s hidden with this point spread.

Hawaii, on the other hand get a new coach in Nick Rolovich. At 36, Rolovich is one of FBS' youngest head coaches, but what he lacks in volume of experience, he makes up for with relevant experience. As a player, low-level assistant, and offensive coordinator, he's been exposed to what it takes to win at Hawaii. The last few years they have been bad, and this is a very difficult job when you look at the amount of travel and their opponents the first week of the season, but Hawaii has covered spreads vs. PAC 12 teams in the past going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. PAC 12. They have 9 returning starters on the offense and it should improve with the new coaching while the defense also retaining a lot of their production from a year ago. I also like the fact that they were a bend but don’t break group. Meaning they did not give up a lot of big plays and seems to be what will happen again this year.

X-factor’s… Hawaii has an excellent special teams unit is a strength led by the punter Rigoberto Sanchez who averaged 45 yards per punt. Overall they had a top 20 special teams unit a year ago and the same should be true in 2016. The other thing I look for improvement on is the turnover luck. They were -23 a year ago and that’s unlucky. Look for that to change as this team will clearly be more competitive.