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Sunday's R-A-R-E 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD - 80-47 ATS in career 63

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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Sunday's R-A-R-E 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD - 80-47 ATS in career 63

Postby Pick Bot » Sun Oct 09, 2016 2:32 pm

South Carolina +7 5.5 %NCAAF POD
This game takes place on Sunday and will be a top play for me. I really like South Carolina after being on Georgia a week ago at home against Tennessee as our top play. Georgia struggled big time on the road this year beating Missouri luckily, and getting blown out at Ole Miss. Now their routines are a bit messed up because of the schedule change and they are coming off a devastating season changing loss to Tennessee where their were plenty of mental break downs. Bettors look at that score and see Georgia being competitive against a top 10 team, but Tennessee was decimated by injuries on their defense and benched their best RB in that game.

I’m also not impressed with how Kirby Smart handled that game in the 4th quarter. Not that Will Muschamp is a great coach or anything, but at least I know he’s going to have his team defensively prepared. I’ll back a solid defense any day of the week at home against an offense that does not blow you away and you are giving me 7 points.

I also really do not understand the notion that Georgia will dominate in the trenches as I have read by some Georgia bloggers or Georgia fans. They can’t protect their QB ranking 105th in protection rate, and they are 114th at getting to the QB. The offensive line has really struggled this season. I get Nick Chubb is coming back, but he’s not 100%, and the run defenses this team has faced have been awful. They’ve faced an FCS opponent, 107th, 93rd, 104th, and then Tennessee who ranks 43rd in run defense, but was missing 2 LB’s and their best player in the secondary. On the flip side South Carolina has struggled at times on defense, but have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses for an average rank of 54.4. I thought they did a pretty good job against A&M who ranks 2nd in YPC holding them under their season average and they have a running QB who had 84 yards rushing. The Gamecocks certainly do not need to worry about Jacob Eason taking off and running here.

On the flip side Georgia has not stopped the run they rank 73rd so where is the advantage? Especially when you consider they have faced an average rushing offense ranked 64.75 + an FCS foe. That’s much higher than the strength of schedule South Carolina faced of 54.4. South Carolina will mix in two QB’s in this one and I think they can run the ball better than they have going up against this defense. So far they have faced 2 top 50 running defenses and that has been the reason they have struggled to run the ball at times. Being at home against a run defense that has holes should allow South Carolina to run. After all they have faced 5 FBS opponents with an average run defense of 63.2 compared to Georgia’s 86.75.

Flip over to the passing game and there is no doubt Georgia has the edge in terms of talent. Jacob Eason could be a star in this league, but they certainly do not trust him and he is prone to make mistakes. South Carolina has a better pass defense than Georgia to this point. Allowing 4 passing TD’s and 5 Interceptions and just 5.9 yards per attempt. South Carolina should take some deep shots if they are smart as Georgia has had all kinds of mental break downs in their secondary. The Gamecocks get back 2 WR that were out last week in Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards to play critical roles. South Carolina should also have the time to throw and when they have SR. QB Perry Orth in there I give them a small edge.

X-factor if you want to call it that. South Carolina is very tough to score on in the red zone. Allowing 38% TD rate when teams get there compared to Georgia’s 70%. I think Georgia will have a hard time scoring points to be honest and they don’t trust their kicker who is 4-9 this year. It was the reason we almost lost ATS last week.
Pick Bot
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