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5.5% MAX Rated NCAAF POD - 82-50 ATS Career on MAX PLAYS!

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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5.5% MAX Rated NCAAF POD - 82-50 ATS Career on MAX PLAYS!

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:32 pm

#1 Overall College Football Expert - THREE Top-10 Finishes - (#1 TWICE!) - REST OF THE SEASONF OR JUST $299! Freddy releases a RARE max rating college football top play in a marquee game on Saturday . Freddy has gone an amazing 82-50 ATS on MAX RATED plays in his college football career and backs up his play with a full in depth analysis you don't want to miss! GUARANTEED OR YOUR $$ BACK!

Iowa +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / Iowa +255 1% bonus
Penn State can win out and get into the college football playoff! That’s not happening and now that they are ranked #12 they have a target on their back and this line is extremely inflated for unjust reasons. First of all it started with a 3 point win over Minnesota a weaker version of Iowa in reality. In that game Penn State was +2 total yards, -12 in first downs, -13.5 minutes in time of possession, but they got a key turnover that gave them the win. Against Maryland they were simply dominant +254 yards, but they still allowed 4.5 yards per carry and were fortunate when Perry Hills, Maryland’s senior QB left very early in that game. Against Ohio State it was the miracle 60 yard blocked field goal returned for a TD as Ohio State was trying to go up by 7. Ohio State dominated time of possession 37 minutes to 22 in that game and were coming off a very tough physical game at Wisconsin. You still have to give them credit for that win, and then they go on the road and beat Purdue 62-24 and now the entire country is giving them credit, but it was a 17-17 game at the half. Purdue, a very one dimensional offense turned the ball over 4 times and the game was much closer than what the final said. Purdue also held a significant edge in time of possession 35 to 25 and held Penn State to 2-9 on third down, but they could not stop Saquan Barkley.

I believe Iowa can stop Barkley and I believe this spread is very much inflated. Iowa coming in off a bye after losing to Wisconsin. Iowa still has a ton to play for including a shot at the Big Ten Championship game if they win out. Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS the last 6 times he is off a bye in the regular season. The key is run the ball and stop the run, and I believe they can do both here. First of all Penn State has allowed 6 of 8 opponents to run for 150 or more yards. Iowa is 26-2 since the 2013 season when they are able to run for over 150+ yards which includes a 5-0 record this season. While I think their run defense may have some issues with Barkley the extra time to prepare with definitely help, and it’s not like Penn State is blowing opponents out unless they are significantly winning the TO margin, and Iowa has turned the ball over just 5 times all year. Penn State also has been a big play team this year, and Iowa’s defense is very consistent and good defending big plays.

Penn State has actually been terrible on third down they were 2-9 against Purdue. Purdue was allowing opponents at home to convert on 53% of their third downs. Penn State just 25% on the year, 24% in conference play on third downs and that has transitioned over to their red zone performance of 54% TD’s. Their defense has also struggled allowing 44% conversions on third down and 63.33% TD’s in red zone play. Iowa on the other hand has been better on offense and defense across the board in red zone and third down efficiency which is a big key in a close game like this and that’s why I think Iowa is able to pull the upset. All the pressure on Penn State now that they are ranked #12 with a path to the college football playoff, but I think Iowa has a big head coaching edge in this one. I think you see a huge game from Akrum Wadley
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