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5.5% MAX Rated NCAAF POD - 82-51 ATS

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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5.5% MAX Rated NCAAF POD - 82-51 ATS

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:03 pm

Arkansas +7 5.5% NCAAF POD
The Tigers have not played particularly well in the previous six contests following a defeat against Alabama. LSU has won four of the six games, but struggled in knocking off Troy (2008), Louisiana Tech (2009) and Mississippi State (2012).

The Tigers did comfortably beat Texas A&M 34-10 in 2013. However, LSU had the benefit of an open date after losing to the Tide that year. Arkansas whipped LSU the past two seasons by scores of 17-0 and 31-14 – the latter loss coming in Tiger Stadium.

I don’t really understand this spread other than the fact that LSU has a top 10 rushing offense and Arkansas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation and in the SEC. However, Arkansas really was banged up before their bye. Against Florida last week, a run first team they managed to hold them to 14 rushing yards. The defense is healthy and was only on the field for 20 minutes last week and 51 total plays compared to the LSU’s defense which was on the field for 34 minutes and 70 plays. They also played in a very physical game, and I expect a major hang over for this team and their head coach Ed Orgeron, who is likely out after the season. LSU, not much to play for here with 3 losses other than maybe revenge against Arkansas, but I still think Arkansas has too good of an offense to lose by more than a TD.

A couple of other things here. LSU struggled the last two years to run the ball against Arkansas with 59 rushing yards, and 36 rushing yards. Arkansas got healthy last week, and againt his week they get another opportunity to play in their base defense, the 4-3 and allow their linebackers to make the plays. They don’t have a big threat in LSU’s passing game, much like last week and that should give them good results to keep this game close. On flip side LSU’s defense will have their hands full. Arkansas has a balanced attack, and the running game has gotten much better since they moved some things on the offensive line. This is a team with serious weapons in the receiving corps and Austin Allen is doing a good job of getting the ball to all of them who are mostly upper classmen playing in their last game at home! This offense put up 30 points against Alabama’s defense despite 5 turnovers. Arkansas has cleaned up the turnovers and have actually forced 12 turnovers in 6 home games meanwhile LSU’s defense as good as it is has forced only 12 turnovers all year.

At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we are still catching value off Arkansas getting dominated by Auburn just a few weeks ago, but this is a different Arkansas team that is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 November games which includes 8-2 ATS under their head coach Bielema.
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