• Advertisement

MAX Rated NCAAF POD Monday - Boston College vs. Maryland

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
  • Advertisement

MAX Rated NCAAF POD Monday - Boston College vs. Maryland

Postby Pick Bot » Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:32 pm

Boston College +2.5 5.5% POD
First of all I look at the ACC, and I feel they are an under rated conference from top to bottom. ACC is the most experienced conference of the power 5 going into the year, and I really think there are some solid teams throughout. The Big Ten lost a lot of talent last year and were among the inexperienced teams and have a lot of bottom feeders. ACC went 3-1 vs. the Big Ten. Meanwhile comparing what the ACC did against the MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and AAC they did better in 3 of the 4 conferences from a record and point differential perspective.

To me these are two similar offenses that have struggled this year. Maryland was without their QB at times and that’s why they struggled a ton, but even with Perry Hillis this team when they step up in competition do not play well. In fact they beat 1 bowl team all year long. That was Central Florida out of the AAC. Really they were lucky to win that game because they were +4 in turnover margin. That was 40% of the turnovers Maryland forced all year. Central Florida got waxed in their bowl as favorites against a Sun Belt team. That win looks even worse. Maryland will face a top 50 defense in Boston College here today and they are 1-6 this year against such foes.

Boston College plays in a tougher conference and when they weren’t playing the top teams in their conference they were in every game. I really think they have an edge in the trenches and this is exactly the type of matchup they win. Maryland on the other hand we saw them lost big at home against Minnesota 31-10. Granted Minnesota’s offense is probably a little more capable, but they are very similar to Boston College in a lot of ways. BC was +7 in tackles for loss with 92, and +16 in sacks with 39 led by Harold Landry. Maryland was -16 and -8. They allowed 94 tackles for loss and 41 sacks. Boston College is one of the best run defenses in the nation ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed. That does not bode well for Maryland who can’t protect their QB. I just don’t see how Maryland can score enough points in this game. Boston College is 9th in the nation holding opponents 95.6 yards under their season average. Maryland comes in 105th which should help Boston’s offense.

BC should be able to have balance here with a running game and Patrick Towles connecting on short plays which gives me confidence backing them. Towles and this passing offence in wins has 9TD to 2 INT’s with a QB rating 58 points higher than their losses. Since Maryland only forced 6 turnovers outside the UCF game while BC has forced 23. I give a strong edge towards BC winning the turnover battle as well. BC also has the better special teams. So let’s highlight. BC should have the edge in the trenches, the turnover battle, and they play in a tougher conference and had a tougher schedule.
Pick Bot
Posts: 2363
Joined: Thu May 21, 2009 12:21 am

  • Advertisement

Return to Freddy Wills Released Picks

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests