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R-A-R-E 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD - 27-11 ATS career in College Bow

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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R-A-R-E 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD - 27-11 ATS career in College Bow

Postby Pick Bot » Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:32 pm

Miami -2.5 5.5% POD
I’m backing the ACC team in Miami. There is a clue in this line with West Virginia having 10-2 record out of the Big 12 with their only loses being against two top 10 teams, but yet they are under dogs. Dana Holgorson already expressed his disappointment with being in this bowl game despite a 10-2 record and I’m also not really respecting the Big 12.

Miami was banged up all year long in key games on the offensive line and QB Brad Kaaya had some injury issues that he fought through so I think you see the best version of Miami in this game. West Virginia lost to those two top 10 teams by 17 and 28 points and I’m not even so sure that Oklahoma State would beat a healthy Miami team.

Miami has faced a tougher schedule. Their 19th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective played an average 51 YPP ranking and they finished 27th holding opponents 56.6 yards under their season average. Meanwhile West Virginia’s defense also faced an average opponent ranking 51st in YPP and they finished 53rd in yards per play allowed. On paper the offense for West Virginia is slightly better, but they faced a far weaker schedule and Miami’s offensive line was really banged up at times this year.

Keys to the game are going to start in the trenches and Miami just has massive advantages here. They have 99 tackles for loss compared to just 52 for West Virginia’s defensive line. I really think this is the best defense West Virginia has faced all year as they are 11th in front 7 havoc rate and I think Skyler Howard is going to be pressured into making mistakes. On the flip side Miami has turned the ball over just 10 times all eyar behind an experienced QB in Kaaya who should have a balanced attack ahead of him. Miami’s rushing offense has 5.97 ypc in wins and 2.04 in losses with 22 TD’s in the wins and 2 TD’s in the losses.
West Virginia’s run defense is not exactly great. We mentioned they were 52nd in tackles for loss. Their front 7 havoc rate is 128th, but a lot of people are calling this a dominant defense which I don’t agree with. Kansas who is ranked 113th in rushing ran for 150, and Iowa State ranked 69th ran for nearly 200 at a 5.59 ypc clip. All 4 of their final opponents ran for over 4 yards per carry and that bodes well for Miami. Miami’s run defense in case you were curious has been extremely dominant. They have allowed only 8 rushing TD’s all year. That’s going to be a huge issue because I certainly don’t trust Skyler Howard to win this game on his own.
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