Saturday's Rivalry Guarantee - Bama/Auburn - Northwest/Illin

[Pick Bot]

Freddy has gone 31-18 over his last 49 plays, and looks to dominate on Saturday. This is the most affordable package for Saturday with two strong plays, but make sure you check out his other big play packages including his GUARANTEE 5-0 package featuring every play from his TEASER OF THE WEEK (19-4 L23 - FRIDAY'S GAMES!), to his POD, Total play (40-25 career), and a HUGE DOG play at +160 or more!

Northwestern -3 -120 buy 1/2 point 3.5* play
I'm advising a buy on the half point with the Wildcats on Saturday as they host in state rival Illinois. Actually this is not close to being a rivalry game although I know former Illini head coach Tim Beckhman wanted it to be. I will say this, Fitzgerald and Northwestern remember losing last year's game big and getting knocked out of a bowl game, and I don't like the revenge factor, but Fitzgerald's quotes make it obvious that they want revenge, they want to knock Illinois out, and get 10 wins. A 10 win season is just as important as a bowl season for Illinois, and Northwestern is far superior.

I backed Illinois last week, and we really got the cover on the road against Minnesota but they give up the long TD at the end of the game in meaningless time or a meaningless core for Minnesota who could have ended the game with 1 first down, but that sort of things happens. Illinois has given up 538 yards on the ground over their past two games which is a bad bad thing with Northwestern coming to play. Northwestern 4.42 YPC in wins, 1.75 in losses, they need to run the ball. Justin Jackson has been great and had 139 yards against a Wisconsin defense that doesn't let anyone run on them.

Northwestern has had an impressive season, I like the revenge factor and Illinois HC already know he's likely out after this season and Illinois is 0-12 in their last 12 vs. ranked opponents losing by 22.6 points on average.

Auburn +14.5 2.2* play
I’ll take War Eagle in this game they have nothing to lose in this game. Gus Malzahn one of the genius offensive guys in football has given Alabama headaches in years past. Alabama can dominate the trenches on paper, but Auburn seems to be playing its best football right now. They have rushed for over 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games, and have held 4 straight opponents under 200 yards. I look for that improvement, and their run defense against Georgia despite a losing effort was really impressive. This team has been really close in a lot of games, and I wouldn’t be surprised for them to hold this game close. For one thing both of these offenses are one dimensional, and I don’t see a lot of points unless they go up tempo at points, but overall I think Auburn will be in striking distance. The line is huge based on Alabama’s dominance on the road this season, and Auburn’s inconsistent play, but I think that just gives us tremendous value.