4.4 Dime NCAAF POD - Friday Night Lights TCU vs. SMU **14-7

[Pick Bot]

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SMU +17.5 (4.4 Dime POD) -110 Sportsbook.com
All the talk is on TCU and the public is hammering them, but I'm looking at June Jones team a bit differently here. The traditional air it out team is harder to prepare for now as they have a 235 running back named Zach Line who can carry the load and is averaging 8ypc. TCU will most likely shut him down, but that will open it up for Kyle Padron and his athletic receivers. Darius Johnson has 15 catches, and Aldrick Robinson is a deep threat and one of the fastest players in college football. TCU DB's is the weakness of this team if you can even call it one. SMU receivers are a bit more talented than the secondary for TCU as they have given up some long TD's and they are young.

On the other side of the ball Dalton is a similar QB to Padron one that can run and throw with accuracy. SMU's defense is really under rated and will give Dalton a new look. Dalton will try to find weapons, but this running game is going to be stuffed in my opinion looking at all the pressure on Dalton on the road in a "red out" environment. That's right SMU should be sold out as they are hosting the highest ranked team since 1989 when they had #1 Notre Dame. This is a huge inter state rivalry and SMU's defense is good enough to hold this close and their run and shoot offense is good enough to hold it's own and put up some points to cover 17 points. Overall I give SMU a shot to win this game which is why I love this play on Friday night.

Special teams edge to SMU and this will be a big part of this game. Matt Szymanski is one of the top kickers/punters in the country. He's already perfect on every attempt including a 61 yarder and he averages 42 yp punt with accuracy he'll likely keep it away from Kerley here and field position will be very important. Along with that Darryl Fields for SMU is averaging 34.3 yards per kickoff. Finally I'm not going to bust you with trends like I have before I think is the most important quote of the day, "SMU is probably the best defense we've played to this point of the season," Patterson said. "Their passing game will be the best true passing team we'll see to this point and their offensive line...will be a challenge." Coming straight from TCU's head coach. Now I realize he's probably not under estimating a much improved SMU team from years past, but this will be a battle and a close battle. IN 2005 a similar situation TCU came in #5 in the country and lost 21-10. I expect the crowd to really get to DAlton here.