Wednesday's Free Pick (21-11 L32) 1 DIME PLAY

[Pick Bot]

Take Marlins for 1 DIME @ -140 (1-5scale)
I really like this pitching match up advantage Marlins with Nolasco on the mound against the worst hitting team. Nolasco impressed me in two starts a little while back on the road against NYY and TOR. He owns a 2.57 ERA in 2 career stats at San Diego. He'll face a lineup that has really struggled all year long and in their last 10 games vs. RHP they have a .203 average scoring just 2.14 runs per 9 innings. Not very good if you ask me.

Geer will go for the Padres and they are 1-7 the last 8 starts where he was an underdog. He has a 5.20 ERA at home and 4.94ERA during the day. I don't think he'll get hit hard which is what stopped me from taking the run line on the Marlins, but I do think the Marlins will get enough run support as I think Nolasco will throw a gem. Marlins last 10 vs. RHP are averaging 3.96 runs per 9 innings nearly 2 more than the Padres are and they are hitting .62 pts higher.

Marlins are 8-2 in Nolasco's last 10 starts vs. the NL West and they are 17-5 overall in their last 22 games as favorites. Take that into fact along with the Padres are 18-42 in their last 60 as under dogs and 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. RH starter (Nolasco RHP) I'm going with the Marlins! Enjoy!