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[Pick Bot]

Take Red Sox RL -105
I know the Sox are not hitting right now, but it's going to come around and I think tonight is the night it does at home. They'll face a familiar foe from the AL East in Jeremy Guthrie. In his last 2 starts in Boston he's given up 5 ER in each without getting to the 5th inning. Expect a slightly better start from Guthrie but he remains one of the easiest pitchers to cap as he pitches well at home and during the day and that's it. His 6.34ERA on the road is more than 2 runs higher than it is at home. His 6.29ERA during the night is more than 4 runs higher than his day starts.

Boston has a .271 average, but Pedroia, Bay and Drew have big numbers off Guthrie so i expect big things. Baltimore will have their hands filled with Lester where Boston is 25-5 in his last 30 starts as a home favorite. Baltimore is hitting just .217 on the road this year vs. LHP scoring only 2.53 R/9. O's have struggled off lester as he's got a 1.09ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Baltimore. The O's are hitting just .227 and scoring 2.68R/9 over their last 10 vs. LHP. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 home starts vs. Baltimore with Lester on the mound and they are 10-0 in his last 10 when favored -201 or more. I feel very confident knowing the Orioles have lost 79% of their road games by 1+ runs on the road this year! Take the Sox.