Friday's Free Pick - 67.5% Run L40 Free Plays!

[Pick Bot]

Take UNDER 8.5 WAS/PIT 2DIME FREE PLAY (1-5SCALE)
After losing my 1st POD last night on the Phillies in 12 chances. I continued my successful free pick run at 27-13 in my last 40 given to you!

Here tonight I'm confident and it will be a larger free pick release than usual. We've got John Lannan vs. Ross Ohlendorf here tonight. The line opened up at -125 in favor of the Nationals. In my opinion there is no reason why this line should go the other way given how Lannan has pitched this year but the line has dropped to -114 despite 55% of the public being on the Nats. Vegas is expecting a close game and it is because of the pitching here tonight.

I can state Lannan's stats as I did in the Pitching report today. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last 5 starts and he's got 1 start vs. Pirates this year going 7 innings and giving up 1ER. He'll face a lineup without Wilson and Sanchez today as this team continues to get weaker and weaker. The Pirates are scoring 0.78 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 and it's going to take them a while to gel and establish a team that can find it's groove again. To me as it stands today the Pirates are the worst team in baseball. However, Vegas is moving the line the other way and it is for no other reason than Ross Ohlendorf. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 starts vs. LH starter.

Ohlendorf has the 6-2 record and a 3.39 ERA at home this year including a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 home starts. He faces the Nationals who do have a decent lineup but still on the road they just aren't a good hitting team. Pirates are under 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a losing team as he seems to get most of his quality starts against the bottom half of the MLB.

The Nats are Under 6-0 in their last 6 as favorites -110 to -150 and they are under 18-4-1 with Lannan on 4 days rest. They are under 12-1 in their last 13 overall games as favorites for the Nats, and they are under 7-1 in their last 8 on the road. The Pirates are under 11-2 in their last 13 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 10 following an off day.