Wednesday's Free Pick (31-18 L49 Free Picks!)

[Pick Bot]

Take Cardinals -1.5 @ -150 2Dime Free (1-5 Scale)
We are going with the Cardinals on the run line here today and it is based on Chris Carpenter. We have hit a bit of a slide on our premium plays as of late, but I think it is mostly do with the kind of plays that have been available. Vegas has gotten much sharper on the favorites and if you pay attention you will start to see many more games at -200 or -300 even that you were not seeing earlier in the year.

Onto today's free play. Cardinals are 21-2 in Carpenter's last 23 starts at -201 or better. Today is his highest spread ever at -300 now moving even higher. This year he is 4-0 while being at -201 and has a 1.40 ERA over 4 starts. 3 of the 4 were wins by more than 1 run and I'm expecting the same here today given the Reds starter and their offensive struggles particularly against Carpenter. Collectively the Reds have a .189 average with nobody hitting over .214 that has more than 10 AB. Cardinals are 40-12 in Carpenters last 52 home starts while his opponents (Reds) are 3-14 in Homer Bailey's last 17 starts overall.

Bailey will make the start and although the Cardinals have just 46 AB vs. the RHP they have made the best of them with a .326 average and winning all three of his starts by more than 1 run. Bailey should have a lot of trouble with the line up that has improved with their pre-trade deadline acquisitions. Bailey with a 7.12 ERA in 9 starts this year has a 7.32 ERA on the road. I see him struggling here against a Cardinal lineup that is hitting .295 against RHP in their last 10 games.