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[Pick Bot]

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Take Under 8 runs Phillies vs. Astros
Some had this open at 7.5 runs and a lot of places moved it up to 8 runs. I jumped on this as soon as it moved to 8 runs I can't see how this does not stay under the total and I'll get to that in a second. We will have a premium pitching match up here tonight with Cliff Lee vs. Wandy Rodriguez.

Rodriguez who gets the home start and has always been solid at home amazingly only has one start vs. the Phillies from 2006. The Phillies are going to be surprised on how much he has improved. Wandy has grown up in a hurry and is having a Cy Young type year. He has a 7-2 record with a 1.73 ERA at home this season. However it is what he has done as of late at home. In his last 4 starts at home he has a 0.29 ERA allowing just 1 ER on a HR in 31 IP, 18H 5BB. Just amazing stuff against the likes of the Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates. With the exception of the Pirates those are some solid hitting teams. I also like the fact that Rodriguez gave up 4 ER in his last start as he clearly has the rebound potential and again that start was on the road. Rodriguez gave up 10 ER in a start a few games ago against the Brewers on the road. He rebounded in his next start to throw 8 scoreless innings against the Marlins. He'll go up against the Phillies who are not hitting right now with a .169 average in their last 5 scoring 1.42 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP. In their last 10 the problems continue with a .221 average and 4.13 runs per 9 now facing one of the best lefties in the National League. Although some may say his opponent Cliff Lee is the best in the NL.

Lee goes for the Phillies for his 4th road start since joining the team. In road starts he has a 3-0 record with a 0.82 ERA. Part of his success is that a lot of these NL teams have not seen him and the Astros are one of them. Lee is coming off his first non quality performance in his last start and I think he bounces back in a big way here against the Astros who are hitting just .221 in their last 5 vs. LHP. The Phillies are under 14-2 in their last 16 Friday games and they are under 12-3 in their last 15 with the total between 7-8.5 runs. As well as under 20-7-2 in their last 29 road games overall.

Astros also follow the trend of under as they are under 22-5-1 in their last 28 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. They are under 12-3 in their last 15 overall, 10-1 when Rodriguez is on the mound in their last 11 as home dogs of +110 to +150. They are also under 17-5-2 in Rodriguez's last 24 following a team loss!