Hot & Cold Probable Starters | 6/26/2011

[Freddy Wills]

Sunday we have a total of eight hot pitchers and six cold pitchers so it is a little more evened out, but we have a couple of intriguing match ups featuring hot pitchers going up against each other. One to mention is the battle of LA and I'm not talking about the movie. The Angels vs. the Dodgers and they have their two aces facing off in Jered Weaver and Clayton Kershaw both have a 0.86 WHIP in their last 3 starts. However, our prediction and free comes in the Marlins vs. Mariners game below.


Marlins -113 (1.5* Free Play) Both of these teams have really struggled to score runs with just under 3 runs in their last 10 games combined. I have more confidence in the Marlins to break out of that slump as this is something new for this team while the Mariners have struggled to score runs all year and that will continue against Anibal Sanchez who has a 2.61 ERA over his last 3 starts, but more importantly is his 2.90 overall ERA is right in line with his trending ERA or xFIP which is at 2.97. His raw stats are impressive just 2.5 BB/9 and 9.15 K/9 make him the real deal this year and he's going on 5 days rest on Sunday so you have to like his chances against Doug Fister and the Mariners.

Fister has been solid in fact he's gone 5 straight starts pitching 7 innings or more, but I feel the Marlins are about to get hot here scoring 3 runs in the 1st inning on Saturday night as I type this and Fister just 5.89 K/9 is pitching a bit over his head in my opinion and the Mariners are just 6-21 in his last 27 starts as an under dog. He's pitched well at times and you have to wonder why he's not favored in his own ballpark. Another advantage in the Marlins direction is they actually get the bottom of the inning despite playing in Seattle as this was a reschedule series from Florida to Seattle. I expect them to take advantage of that.

Other Hot Starters L3 Starts:
Tim Hudson (2-1, 18 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Josh Outman (2-1, 19 IP, 0.89 whip, 1.89 ERA)
Roy Halladay (3-0, 20 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Jerred Weaver (2-1, 23.2 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 1.52 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (1-2, 22 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 2.86 ERA)
Dillon Gee (2-1, 16 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 2.81 ERA)
Carl Pavano (3-0, 25 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)


Derek Holland is who we give the best shot of our cold starters to win on Sunday as he goes up against a Mets team that struggles vs. LHP on the season. Also it's a rubber match and the Mets just have not played well in game 3 of a series especially when they have a chance to take the series 2-1. I expect Holland to return from his poor outings and out duel Dillon Gee who is starting to come back to reality after his impressive winning streak for the Mets.

Other Cold Starters L3 Starts:
JA Happ (0-3, 13 IP, 2.08 WHIP, 9.00 ERA)
Juan Nicasio (3-0, 15.2 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 13.1 IP, 1.72 WHIP, 7.42 ERA)
Fausto Carmona (1-2, 13.2 IP, 2.27 WHIP, 9.88 ERA)