Probable Pitchers 5/23/12 - FREE PICK

[Freddy Wills]

An interesting probable pitching day for Wednesday as we have a total of six cold starters with ERA's over 6 in their last three starts while we have a total of eight probable pitchers with an ERA under 2.57 over their last three starts. There is one that sticks out to us that has the most value and most interest to get our best return on investment for .


What a great name for a pitcher that's considered to be on of the hottest pitchers going right now with a 1.40 ERA over his 1st three starts of the year. Diamond was dominant against both the Blue Jays and Angels going 14 IP combined while allowing 0 ER. He'll face the White Sox who are 21st in OPS vs. LHP with a .663 and the White Sox have 42 AB with a .238 and .646 OPS against him. It should be interesting if the Twins continue their quiet hot hitting and dominance over the White Sox.

Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 at Chicago and are quietly 9th with a .736 OPS vs. LHP. That is relevant because they'll face Chris Sale who struggles to go deep into games. At home he's gone just 5, 6, and 5 innings over his 3 starts and that is a major issue considering the White Sox have a 4.66 bullpen ERA at home and carry a 5.23 bullpen ERA over their last 10. Speaking of their last 10 games the Twins are smoking the ball with a .267 average and 6.46 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Joe Mauer is one of the reasons why as he looks to have returned to his old form.

Kevin Millwood (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.95WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Doug Fister (0-3, 1.16 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (3-0, 0.91 WHIP, 1.17 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (2-1, 1.28 WHIP, 2.50 ERA)
Jeff Sammardija (2-1, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Ted Lilly (3-0, 0.98 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)

With six for cold starters the pitcher with the best shot at winning that we chose has got to be Jerred Weaver who is posting a 6.06 ERA over his last three starts. That is a bit of a mirage because Weaver has an overall ERA of 2.80, but his recent struggles are limited to one bad start on the road at Texas where he gave up 8 ER in 3.1 IP. He's not the only guy struggling in Texas so it was no surprise. In the last year Weaver posts a 5-1 record and a 1.21 ERA.


Johnathan Niese (1-2, 1.86 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Jake Arrieta (1-2, 1.71 WHIP, 7.41 ERA)
Jarrod Parker (1-2, 1.84 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)
Luis Mendoza (1-2, 1.79 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 2.16 WHIP, 9.42 ERA)