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UCF -1 (5* NCAAF POD)
I love the Knights here at home on Thursday night in what Sr. leadership is calling their “championship game.” I love that kind of an attitude to the C-USA’s #1 overall defense, in every category. UCF is 3rd nationally in total offense, 5th vs. pass, 5th vs. the run, and 5th in scoring defense and oh ya they haven’t allowed a TD at home. So what if the competition is not there for that to be overly impressive as they have played dominant at home and they play a physical style that Tulsa is not used to.

I do not view Tulsa’s win at SMU as high as others, for one it was home, and they should have won and SMU just came off a tough loss the Southern Miss and were emotionally not ready for that game. Now the oddsmakers set a low spread based on that performance, but this is the first time the Tulsa offense will see a defense that can stop their balanced attack and it’s at home where UCF can get off the ball right along with the offensive line of Tulsa. UCF dominated a very big Boston College offensive line in a 30-3 victory earlier in the year and I expect them to play well. Tulsa’s QB GJ Kinne did not fair well vs. Boise throwing 4 interceptions and UCF has arguably the better pass defense as they have allowed a 98 QB rating this year 52% 4TD/7INT, and a 66 QB rating in their home games. (Boise, 105, 51%, 101 home). I think they struggle on 3rd down, If they throw on first they will have a hard time as UCF only allows 50% completions, if they run UCF allows just 1.86 yards per carry at home. I think we see a lot of 3rd downs and Tulsa has not been that great with just 40.35% conversions overall while UCF has allowed only 28.97%, 16% at home.

On the other side Tulsa is 107th in pass defense 82nd in overall defense and UCF got it going last week and they’ll carry that momentum into this game. They’ve been far better at home 5.45 yards per carry and it’s not like the offense can’t move the ball they just struggle in the red zone. AS they have a 141 QB rating 68.4% passes, 1904 yards 4 TD 4 INT. Tulsa has lived off turnovers leading the league with 13 int’s, something UCF can’t do is turn the ball over and they have not this year while Tulsa is -3 TO margin as they have turned the ball over 23 times. I think the short rest for both teams plays an impact. Both won comfortably a week ago but Tulsa had the tougher game and now go on the road while SMU were able to rest key defensive players and still pitch a shutout that really speaks to their depth.

UCF finally has allowed just 15 red zone attempts, they’re an aggressive bunch that I think will force turnovers on Thursday. They are still the class of this conference 15-6ATS in their last 21 and they know how important this game is.