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[Pick Bot]

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1ST SCORE FG +150 (1* PLAY)
It's nearly a guarantee that the Giants will have the ball first. Why? Well if New England wins the toss they have deferred to the second half every time this season while the Giants have opted to receive in 7 of their 9 wins including the first time these two played. Now even if the Giants do not score on the first possession they are still holding defenses to FG's 60% of the time in this year's playoffs. But suppose they drive the ball down into scoring possition. The Patriots defense has allowed 10 of 18 TD's on their opponents first scores. The Giants have a 41.67% TD percentage this post season while the Patriots are sneaky good in the red zone among the leagues top 15 and have held 50% of opponents to a FG or less in red zone trips over the last 3 games. I'll take those 50 50 odds at +150.

Giants U2.5 sacks -13.5 (1.5* play)
Now the Giants are 5th in sack % 7.51% of drop backs, but vs. the Patriots in the first game Brady dropped back 49 times and was sacked two times for 4.08%. Most of the Patriots design is for quick passes they don't wait for players to get down the field or take any crazy chances and they are very aware on how they lost the last Super Bowl. Brady ranked 6th getting sacked just 1.8 x per game and a 4.62%. I see a game plan much like the first which will be designed for quick decisions.

Patriots to get 1st sack +105 (1* play)
Patriots really came on with a pass rush towards the end of the season. Overall they were ranked pretty well 6.58% sacks and over their last 3 even better at 8.47% and that's better than the Giants 7.38%. Manning tends to hold onto the ball a little bit longer looking for the big play that's carried them all year. Over his last 3 games he's being sacked at a higher rate than the season 6.11% of his drop backs. He's also been passing more of late and the Patriots are capable of shutting down run games forcing this to be a pass first type game.

Patriots U5.5 -110 Penalties (2.2* play)
Not sure I understand this other than the fact the Patriots were flagged 7 times in the first match up at home. That was a sloppy performance they'll have cleaned up. I am sure this team is not very happy about the number of times they were penalized that caused many drives to stall. It was one of the reasons they lost the first match up. They only averaged 5/game on the season and over their last 3 they've averaged 2.3 penalties per game. Looking back at prior Super Bowls there is nothing that suggests you get flagged more in the Super Bowl than in the regular season.

Brady's longest completion (Under 42.5 yards -120) (2.5* play)
Brady had just 12 plays all year over 42.5 yards and 3 of them came from Gronkowski and while I think he'll be healthy enough to play he definitely won't require a lot of attention form the safeties to stretch the field. The Giants menawhile have allowed just 7 plays passing over 42.5 yards. Their pass rush is that good that you just do not have time to get down the field 2 of those 7 were on blown coverage and they played New Orleans in a dome and only allowed 1 play over 42.5 yards. Faced GB twice and never allowed a play over 40 yards. Most of the Patriots big plays this year have come vs. division opponents 5 to be exact. They know these teams well and they also do not have top pass rushing defenses. Brady will be happy to work the ball down the field dinking and dunking and keeping Eli Manning off the field as well as his defense.

Brady will not throw an interception +125 (1* play)
Nope I do not think he throws an interception. 9 of the 18 games they played this season he has not thrown an interception. He's thrown one in three straight games right now but I think he knows the 2 picks cost him in the first match up between them and the Giants. I think Brady comes out with his A game. The Giants are 16th in interceptions forced per drop back at 2.99% while the Patriots are 8th in interceptions thrown per drop back at 2.2%. Brady throws a pick every 50 attempts or so. He is due to go a game without throwing one here.