5.5* NCAAF National Championship Game #Alabama vs. #NotreDam

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss out on my max National Championship game. We had Alabama last year and we are undefeated for this game in our career going 4-0 ATS on 5.5* plays. Don't miss out on tonight's max play guaranteed and backed by a full in depth analysis that will have you wanting to bet more!

Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game.

Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns).

On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games.

Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many.