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4.4* NCAAF POD #PAC12 Game of the Week! - Guaranteed or Satu

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.4* NCAAF POD #PAC12 Game of the Week! - Guaranteed or Satu

Postby Pick Bot » Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:03 pm

I love this PAC 12 match up between two similar teams and two similar QB's. The QB match up is what makes me excited for this game and we have a good spread that should mean for a great game out west. I have a rare Friday night NCAAF POD which is backed by a full in depth analysis. This will be my PAC 12 Game of the Week which we won last week with Utah +7 over Arizona State!

Washington +3 4.4* NCAAF POD
This line looks a bit sketchy and the public is pounding UCLA, but the line is not moving and it's clear to me Vegas is gambling on this game too. Vegas loves the Huskies here tonight otherwise they'd move the line to -3.5 or -4 but it's going to -2.5 in some spots and I'd rather be on the experts side. I will give you information on why it's smart to be betting on Washington here tonight despite what UCLA has done this year.

UCLA offensively behind Brett Hundley have gotten a ton of hype this year, but when they have faced really good defenses they have struggled. Washington has a very physical defensive line and is ranked 19th in opposing QB rating for a reason. Their defense fits in that mold of Oregon and Stanford, who stopped UCLA cold. Washington also gets to the QB at 9.28% of drop backs on the road while UCLA's offensive line has been a weakness this year ranked 92nd in sacked % and has been worse of late. UCLA does not have as much balance as Washington does and I'm not even so sure they have the better QB in this game as Keith Price has been amazing all year. UCLA went to a LB to give them some carries last week and while that made a great story for the media it's not going to be a regular thing. Hundley will have to be the one that carries this team to victory and while he's done it before I don't think he can tonight.. I have seen this offense go cold too many times and they were even struggling for a large part of the Utah game. I think UCLA was even lucky to get out with a win last week against Arizona even though we had UCLA as our Pac 12 game of the week.

Meanwhile Washington is not getting the credit because they are behind Oregon and Stanford in the PAC 12 and have no shot at going to the PAC 12 Championship game. However, their 3 losses which came all in a row were more because of a scheduling spot. You won't see many teams that have to play three weeks in a row against 3 better teams all of which have contrasting styles. Washington moved the ball up and down the field on Stanford and should have won that game as they outgained them by 210 yards on the road while UCLA was outgained at Stanford by 153 yards and could not manage any offense. Washington also held on tight and were within 7 points against Oregon while UCLA was tied at half time fell apart in the 2nd half. I won't be surprised if UCLA gets off to a great start because they have done it for most of the year, but by the end of the game the better team will prevail and that is the Huskies behind next level players like Bishop Sankey at RB and Keith Price at QB connecting with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Despite losing Kasen Williams they are still only 3 point under dogs? That tells you the story right there just how confident Vegas is in this line. Jaydon Mickens and Kevin Smith also have talent at receiver and UCLA won't be any good on defense vs. a balanced offense like Washington.
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