4.4** Cotton Bowl Play - 31-14 ATS L45 NCAAF Picks

[Pick Bot]

Don't miss a 4.4** play on the Cotton Bowl. I attended this game and predicted an easy winner last year with Texas A&M and I look for the same result this year and my play is backed by a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence!

Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY
Wow what a crazy match up this is as both teams had a chance to win their final game and win their conference championship but came up short. Both teams used to face off against each other in the Big 12 and Mike Gundy and Gary Pinkel know plenty of each other. Gundy has won 3 of the 4 match ups including one game where he was a +14 under dog on the road. He is also 12-3 in his last 15 games following a SU loss and he is 5-2 in bowl games while Pinkel is just 4-4 in many more seasons in bowl games at Missouri.

For Missouri it was almost the perfect season and they are a solid team, but what you won't see in the stat line is some of their luck of facing teams at the right time. Florida and Georgia were both banged up when they defeated them and then South Carolina had a miracle come back after dominating most of the game so even though I was high on Missouri throughout the season I knew at times they were very fortunate and I don't think they can get up for this game after coming off a tough SEC match up where they gave up so many rushing yards in the end if the defense does not get a pass rush and are making tackles for loss they just cant' stop you.

Oklahoma State is able to beat good offenses. Just take a look at their wins vs. Kansas State who is 13th in QB rating and Baylor who was 4th. In both of their losses their QB struggled. I think he'll be fine in this game however because Missouri won't be getting sacks as Oklahoma State is 5th in protecting the QB. Missouri is 100th in completion % defense and 103rd in passing yards allowed so I see Oklahoma State being able to move the ball through the air at will.

Even bigger keys are what Missouri didn't do when they lost games and in their 2 losses they could not convert on third down with 23%, Oklahoma St holds opponents to 31% which is better than Missouri's 37% defense. Missouri also converts 70% of their red zone attempts into TD's, but only 50% in losses which was their issue against Auburn. Oklahoma State is great in the red zone even better than Auburn and South Carolina holding opponents to 41% and it will be the reason they win this game.